tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-92957972024-03-06T22:45:06.720-05:00Sportszilla and the Jabber JocksHomer: Hey, kid and man! Don't support a team run by liars.
Milhouse: Liars?
Homer: They're secretly planning to move to Albuquerque.
Kirk Van Houten: That's crazy. It would have been on a talk radio show like "Sports Chatters" or "Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks."Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.comBlogger260125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1157386969504874532006-09-04T12:18:00.000-04:002006-09-04T12:28:48.346-04:00The End, and a New BeginningToday marks the final day of <i>Sportszilla</i>, at least on Blogger. Starting tomorrow, we're moving to a brand new website, <a href="http://www.sportszillablog.com">www.sportszillablog.com</a>, on a new server and with new content managing software. It will rpovide for a smoother, more enjoyable experience and will allow us to do a whole bunch of new and exciting things. For the time being, this site will serve as the archive of past <i>Sportszilla</i> goodness, but no new content will be published here.<br /><br />Tomorrow we'll launch the new site with our NFL previews, and move on from there. Please join us in the future...and the future is <b>now!</b><br /><br />Below is a press release about the new site:<br /><br />My name is Zachary Geballe, as some of you may know. As others of you may know, I run a sports weblog (blog) called Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks. What I doubt any of you know is that Tuesday, September 5th, marks a whole new era for Sportszilla, and for me.<br /><br />The launch of our new site, which can be found at <a href="http://www.sportszillablog.com">www.sportszillablog.com</a>, will coincide with our extensive NFL previews. From there, we’ll still be running the same great content that perhaps attracted you to Sportszilla in the first place.<br /><br />I founded Sportszilla in November of 2004, which means we’re creeping up on a two-year anniversary. In my first post ever, I said “So, here’s my attempt at encapsulating the world of sports, at least from my point of view.” Yes, I know, a typically grandiose statement to make, but one that I still think holds true. From the beginning, I saw Sportszilla as an antidote, or at least an alternative, to sites like ESPN.com and the other lumbering behemoths of online sports writing. Of course, when I did this, there were few other places on could turn for regular, high-quality sportswriting. Today, nearly two years later, the Internet is littered with sports blogs, some good, some bad, and some that only lasted four posts.<br /><br />Over the last 21 months, I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to add five excellent writers to the Sportszilla team, all of whom I’m also fortunate enough to call my friends. Ben Valentine, David Arnott, Bryan Koch, Imtiaz (T-Bone) Mussa, and John Schmeelk have provided excellent insight, analysis, and fun (plus a lot of soccer coverage from T-Bone) to the site. Sportszilla would never have become what it is today without all their hard work.<br /><br />As we get ready to usher in the new era, a few things need to be said. The goal of Sportszilla was, is, and always will be to provide top-notch sports writing free of the typical clichés and inanities that plague newspapers and web sites. We have the luxury of being outside the corporate structure, so we can say what we truly think without fear of advertiser reprisal or loss of access. We’re also committed to helping grow the sports blogging community. I read about a dozen blogs on a daily basis and have visited hundreds more from time to time: long gone are the days when a few media outlets horded information and analysis, parceling it out in meager and unreadable doses; we can now function as sports fans without ever needing to subscribe to ESPN Insider or deal with some of the knuckleheads who write for other major websites.<br /><br />So to those of you who are my friends and family, I invite you to check out the new site, which once again can be found at <a href="http://www.sportszillablog.com">www.sportszillablog.com</a>. For those of you who are in the sports blogging world, I too invite you to visit the new site (often), and more than that to link to it (if you so choose). One of the great things about the community of sports bloggers is that there’s a great sense of camaraderie, not competition, surrounding it.<br /><br />Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, concerns, or fantasy football tips (my draft is tonight).Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1156404985589731102006-08-24T01:13:00.000-04:002006-08-24T03:40:41.026-04:00A Team of Cartoonish ProportionsMy all-time favorite Simpsons episode is <i>Homer at the Bat</i>, mostly because it combines two of my loves, baseball and the Simpsons. Oh, and Ken Griffey, Jr. is in it. Today, I came to a somewhat-painful realization. The 2006 baseball season may, for all intents and purposes, be over. Thanks to an ever-expanding payroll (and a set of rules which allow for unlimited spending), Brian Cashman has assembled the most fearsome lineup I've ever seen outside of the Springfield Nuclear Plant. If Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield make it back into the lineup by the start of the post-season, the Yankees can run out this lineup every single day (stats through games of 8/22):<br /><br />CF - Damon: .298/.369/.512/.881<br />SS - Jeter: .336/.413/.470/.883<br />RF - Abreu: .301/.441.459/.900<br />1B - Giambi: .262/.419/.602/1.020<br />3B - Rodriguez: .287/.389/.506/.895<br />DH - Sheffield (05): .291/.379/.512/.891<br />LF - Matsui (05): .305/.367/.496/.863<br />C - Posada: .270/.368/.463/.831<br />2B - Cano: .326/.355/.479/.834<br /><br />Yes, that's right, a lineup where every hitter has an OPS above .831. There are only 32 hitters in the American league with an OPS over .831. It's a team that will not only hit the ball, and hit it hard, but a lineup that will make pitchers work. Even some of the best offensive teams of recent memory (1995 Indians, 1996 Mariners, 1998 Yankees, 2004 Red Sox) had at least one, if not more, hole in their lineup (Tony Pena/Omar Vizquel, Russ Davis, Chad Curtis, Pokey Reese/Doug Mientkeiwicz/Gabe Kapler). This Yankee team, on the other hand, has none.<br /><br />But wait, you'll say, Matsui and Sheffield are on the DL. True. But Matsui should be back in a few weeks, giving him plenty of time to get in shape for the postseason. Granted, Sheffield is a bit further away. But even if he doesn't make it back, Melky Cabrera is hitting .287/.361/.412/.774. Not staggering, sure. But a .774 OPS is still above average, and while he may not be as good as Sheffield, he's still far from a "hole" in the lineup.<br /><br />Talking this over with the unrepentant Yankee-hater Ben, he mentioned that he thought the Mets lineup was nearly as good. While the Mets lineup is very strong, you can see it's nowhere near the level of the Yankees:<br /><br />SS - Reyes: .290/.346/.477/.823<br />C - Lo Duca: .311/.352/.415/.767<br />CF - Beltran: .288/.388/.628/1.016<br />1B - Delgado: .258/.356/.536/.891<br />3B - Wright: .299/.373/.522/.895<br />2B – Valentin: .285/.338/.497/.834<br />RF – Green: .283/.349/.429/.778<br />LF – Floyd: .245/.330/.416/.746<br /><br />Sure, Carlos Beltran is having a monster season, and Reyes, Wright, and Delgado are tough outs. Hell, Jose Valentin is having a totally unexpected resurgance. But still, there are three guys in the lineup who have significantly lower OPS numbers than anyone in the Yankees lineup.<br /><br />But the Yankees have been stacked in previous years and haven't won the World Series, you say. Well, that might be true. But first of all, they came damn close in 2003 and 2004. Second of all, neither team had an offense nearly as good as this one. Ok, fine, you might say. Still, all it takes is good pitching, and you can beat the Yankees, especially in a short series. I'll give you that Johan Santana and a healthy Francisco Liriano is not the first-round matchup the Yankees are hoping for. But first Liriano would have to get back off the DL (well, first the Twins would have to make the playoffs). An Athletics team with Dan Haren, Barry Zito, and a healthy Rich Harden would also perhaps cause problems, except Harden is an even bigger question mark than Liriano and the Yankees have owned Zito. Plus, there's no guarantee that Oakland could generate any offense, even against a fairly non-descript Yankee pitching staff.<br /><br />Ah, the pitching: it's what wins you games in October (or so the conventional wisdom goes). Well, The Yankees may not have a great staff. They might not even have a good one. But it should be more than enough to get them their 27th title. Mike Mussina is still quite effective, Chien Ming Wang is a good starter no matter what Ben thinks, and Randy Johnson has pitched better in the last month. Plus, Mariano Rivera is still the best reliever in baseball history (especially once the postseason rolls around) and while the rest of the pen is nothing special, it's good enough.<br /><br />Teams like Boston and Chicago (AL) will be unable to overcome their putrid pitching to make a real run at the World Series, but the lineup the Yankees have assembled is too powerful, too patient, and too deep to come up short. Sure, anything can happen: injuries, slumps, trips to the Springfield Mystery Spot. But much like Mr. Burns' team of ringers, the 2006 Yankees are a team that can not lose.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1155271725479154722006-08-11T00:19:00.000-04:002006-08-11T00:48:46.413-04:00When Sports FailThe recent news about disgraced former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett has generated a number of different reactions. Some folks have expressed a fair amount of <a target="_blank" href-"http://deadspin.com/sports/maurice-clarett/">glee</a>, while others have wondered <a target="_blank" href="http://www.columbusdispatch.com/football/football.php?story=dispatch/2006/08/10/20060810-D1-00.html">what went wrong</a>. In the end, the only question I see worth asking is "what can the decline and fall of Maurice Clarett tell us about sports, and America?"<br /><br />Three and a half years ago he was completing one of the most breathtaking freshman seasons in college football history, capping it with a game-winning touchdown run in double overtime of the national championship game. Today, his future in football seems non-existant, and he'll have to struggle mightily to avoid a significant jail term. Along the way he's lobbed serious allegations at OSU, taken the NFL all the way to the Supreme Court, and proved that not all running backs can succeed in Denver.<br /><br />Clarett's problems begin in a social setting in which professional athletics are seen as one of the few ways out of a lifetime of crime and poverty for many young black men. Couple that with the explotive nature of youth athletics, and you have a scenario in which a preternaturally talented young man such as Clarett learned quickly that as long as he kept scoring touchdowns he could get away with just about anything, whether it was in middle school, high school, or college. People would give him money, clothes, cars, and whatever else he wanted just to say that they were near him. Given that kind of treatment, are we surprised when Clarett (or many other star athletes) turn out to be less than stable?<br /><br />I'm currently reading the fascinating book <i><a target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743278852/sr=1-1/qid=1155270185/ref=sr_1_1/002-7452129-4428023?ie=UTF8&s=books">The Ticket Out: Darryl Strawberry and the Boys of Crenshaw</i></a>, which details Strawberry's high school baseball team, perhaps the greatest collection of baseball talent in American high school history. For Strawberry (and his teammates), baseball was the golden ticket out of the ghetto: for Clarett, it was football. We've seen what the perks of being a star athlete did to Strawberry, and we're seeing the same forces at work in Clarett.<br /><br />This isn't meant to exonerate Clarett. Ultimately, his choices, his behavior is his responsibility. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to learn from his failures, to try and understand and prevent them. The first step is to create an environment surrounding youth sports which teaches kids that just because they can hit a ball farther, or run faster, or jump higher then their competition, it doesn't mean they know how to be a sucessful person. Besides, most high school stars don't ever make it to the professional ranks. Unfortunately, with all the money in pro sports there will always be kids (and parents) who have unreasonable expectations, and sleazy boosters, coaches, and others who will take advantage of that desperation.<br /><br />The other step is to make sure that sports, and other long-shot careers (like music/acting/whatever) don't seem like the only way that poor kids can achieve. Again, this is a broad, idealistic suggestion, and I realize it. But the important thing to realize out of Maurice Clarett's life is that he's not some freakish anomoly...he's just self-destructed in public because he used to be really good at carrying the football. Until we as a society see that people like him are the products of our ignorance, our intolerance, and our apathy, we'll continue to see our current and former stars fall apart. While it might seem entertaining, it's mostly just sad.<br /><br />The title of this post is "When Sports Fail," and I mean that. Sports failed Maurice Clarett. Being a star running back didn't teach him how to deal with failure, or adversity, didn't teach him how to live his life. From a young age he was told how great he was, and in many ways he remains that teenager, unable to interact with the world around him in a measured, healthy way. But unlike most of us, who grew out of that mindset (because we realized that things wouldn't be handed to us on a silver platter), Clarett remained warped: he expected his NFL millions to be handed to him (even a year or two ahead of schedule). Again, his choices to violate NCAA regulations and to take the NFL to court are his responsibility. But there's a much more complex explanation than that he's crazy. He worshipped at the idol of sports, and he learned that if such a god exists, it's capricious at best.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1154552467737275412006-08-02T17:00:00.000-04:002006-08-02T17:58:50.960-04:00Hey, Sports Guy! Listen Up...David Ortiz is a baaaaad, baaaaad man. He spits on pitchers' graves. He cures what ails ya'. He hits home runs for the Red Sox. That said, Bill Simmons displays no understanding of the concept of league context in his <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060802">comparison of Larry Bird and David Ortiz</a>. Observe:<br /><br /><i>Bird averaged a 26-9-8 in the '86 playoffs, won the Finals MVP and cemented a summer of "Greatest Player Ever" features, then followed that up with a career year in '87 (28 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 53 percent field-goal shooting, 91 percent from the line, 40 percent from 3s, his second straight title in the 3-point shooting contest). Meanwhile, Big Papi just completed the following 12-month stretch (starting on Aug. 1, 2005 and ending July 31, 2006): batted .294 with a .399 on-base and .604 slugging percentages, 59 homers, 165 RBIs and at least 20-25 humongous hits in the clutch. Sorry, those are Roy Hobbs numbers.</i><br /><br />I'm not going to mess with the basketball claims, though <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1987.html">I suspect</a> someone with more time and know-how can show that <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/birdla01.html">Bird's greatness</a> lies in his sustained excellence, not his peak.<br /><br />Baseball, on the other hand, is right in my wheelhouse. Calling Papi's numbers from last August 1 "Roy Hobbs numbers" is hyperventilating blindness at its best. Papi is awesome, and those numbers sure do look sweet, but he's not so superhuman that nobody else is doing what he's doing. I give you several other hitters and their rate splits from 1 August 2005 through 1 August 2006 (give or take a day or three, due to the database needing time to catch up). They are all very much baaaaad, baaaaaad men. Without peeking, can you guess who they are? Stats via the <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com">Baseball Musings Stats Database</a>, which is based on <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org">Retrosheet</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=745&BatterType=1">Papi</a>: 296/401/642, 59HR<br />(Simmons's numbers are screwed up. He didn't give Papi enough credit to begin with!)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=1573&BatterType=1">Player A</a>: 295/413/610, 44HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=1177&BatterType=1">Player B</a>: 314/432/649, 46HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=2154&BatterType=1">Player C</a>: 291/368/615, 52HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=210&BatterType=1">Player D</a>: 319/426/629, 46HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=409&BatterType=1">Player E</a>: 289/407/619, 33HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=97&BatterType=1">Player F</a>: 327/425/586, 28HR<br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=548&BatterType=1">Player G</a>: 301/406/584, 40HR<br /><br />I'll tell you who they are right after this next bit of inanity from Simmons...<br /><br /><i>The DH thing will hurt Ortiz in any voting, which doesn't quite make sense -- so if he played 90 games at first base and gave you a C-plus there, that would make him more valuable? I don't get it. Bonds won the MVP in 2003 and 2004 moving around in left field like Redd Foxx. That gave him more credibility than Ortiz as a DH? Crazy.</i><br /><br />If Papi played adequate first base (for the record, I have little doubt he could), Theo could have gone into the season planning on having Manny DH, and therefore have had more and better offensive AND defensive options for the lineup. While the Lowell/Youkilis combo has worked out beautifully at the corner infield spots, there's no way the Sox could have expected Lowell's contributions this year. Playing Youk at 3B, Ortiz at 1B, and figuring out whether Manny should DH and finding an outfielder, or acquiring a big bat to DH would have been a better problem to have than risking a Mike Lowell meltdown in order to get Beckett. Brian Giles, anyone?<br /><br />As for the Bonds claim, let's see what Mr. "I may have used PEDs without knowing I used them" did over the ENTIRE 2003-04 seasons:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=04%2F01%2F2003&EndDate=10%2F10%2F2004&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=1109&BatterType=1">Barry Bonds</a>: 353/572/783<br /><br />Who was hitting like Roy Hobbs, again?<br /><br />And the players I listed above...<br /><br />A: Hafner<br />B: Pujols<br />C: Howard<br />D: Manny<br />E: Thome<br />F: Chipper<br />G: Berkman<br /><br />Bonus: 8 guys have been intentionally walked as many times or more than Papi has since 1 August 2005 (It's good times hitting in front of Manny, isn't it?). Can you name them? <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CompareInfo.py?StartDate=08%2F01%2F2005&EndDate=08%2F01%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&SortField=IntentionalWalks&SortDir=desc&MinPA=50">ANSWER</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1154329071444493142006-07-31T02:57:00.000-04:002006-07-31T03:17:29.693-04:00Trading ARod: The Full RundownRecent Development 1: The Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu over the weekend, and he will probably improve their offense significantly.<br /><br />Recent Development 2: They also acquired Cory Lidle in the deal. Replacing Sir Sidney with Lidle is a solid upgrade.<br /><br />Question arising from these developments: If the Yankees win the 2006 World Series, will the Scott Brosius Fan Club, aka the psychotic wing of Yankees fandom, finally consider Alex Rodriguez worthy of his roster spot, or will they claim the team won in spite of him?<br /><br />All along, despite <a href="http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/07/mission-furnish-msnbccom-offices-with.html">mediot goading</a>*, the chances of the Yankees trading Rodriguez have been about the same as the chances <a href="http://www.gawker.com/news/top/the-lindsay-lohan-story-137504.php">Lindsay Lohan will call my cell tonight</a>: technically possible, but, in reality, impossible. Why should they trade him? He slumped badly in June, and any smug <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?entryDate=20060117&name=simmons">bassbowl</a> trying to justify the booing at that time would only have to insist that New York fans are a "what have you done for me lately?" crowd. However, the guy has been tremendous in July, walloping the ball to a 308/388/549 clip. The booing is uncalled for, and it's shameful (or hilarious, I guess, depending on your point of view) how a minority of Yankees fans are making the whole group look like a bunch of yokels.<br /><br />ANYWAY, just to nail the point home, here, in alphabetical order by team name, is a list of what each MLB team would have to give up for ARod in trade. Zach, Ben, and I have already gone through the Mariners, Mets, and Giants, respectively, and you can follow the links below to more detailed reasoning for those trade proposals.<br /><br />So, members of the Scott Brosius Fan Club (he of the career 95 OPS+), so that I'm clear, none of these deals will ever happen. You're "stuck" with ARod. Get over yourselves. The rest of MLB fandom hates you with a passion.<br /><br /><b>The The Angels Angels of Anaheim</b><br />Angels get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Howie Kendrick, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, and <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=434578&tm=SalPCL&bp=p">Joe Saunders</a><br />Instant offense for the Halos, while the Yanks get a rookie replacement 2B/3B, two MLB-ready starters who would actually improve the back end of the rotation this year, and one of the top three setup guys in the majors.<br /><br /><b>Astros</b><br />Astros get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Roy Oswalt, Jason Lane, and <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=462956&tm=SalCAR&bp=p">Felipe Paulino</a><br />ARod plays SS, the offense is suddenly one of the best in the NL, and while losing Oswalt is huge, in order to get ARod now and for the future, they'll take their chances with Clemens and Pettitte leading the rotation. The Yankees would get a top-flight starter who is locked up for at least one more year, a slugging outfielder who could be the first bat off the bench, and a raw minor league fireballer.<br /><br /><b>Athletics</b><br />A's get: ARod, $8 million<br />Yankees get: Barry Zito, Dan Johnson, Jay Payton, and Mark Ellis<br />ARod plays SS, Crosby moves to 2B, and Daric Barton takes over at 1B with Swisher moving back to the OF full time. For the Yankees, Zito shores up the rotation, Johnson replaces Andy Phillips, Payton starts in LF until Matsui gets back, at which point he replaces Melky Cabrera off the bench, and Mark Ellis takes over 3B and hits ninth (which is a huge downgrade offensively, but the rest of the upgrade might make it worthwhile for this season).<br /><br /><b>Blue Jays</b><br />Blue Jays get: ARod<br />Yankees get: <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=430661&tm=SyrIL&bp=p">Dustin McGowan</a>, Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, and Ted Lilly.<br />New York's OF problem gets solved right away with two guys who will also command a pretty penny in trade talks after the season, Abreu can even DH until either Matsui or Sheffield gets back, Lilly is a big improvement on the back of the rotation, McGowan is a highly-touted pitching prospect, and Hinske is a good-enough 3B stopgap (who can't hit lefties to save his life) until Eric Duncan is ready. For Toronto, ARod plays SS, Aaron Hill takes over 2B permanently, Frank Catalanotto mans RF, and <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=430671&tm=SyrIL&bp=b">Wayne Lydon</a> comes up to play LF.<br /><br /><b>Braves</b><br />Braves get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Tim Hudson, Edgar Renteria, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia<br />You know what? I'm tired of justifying all these trades, and I'm on deadline. You can figure out how it benefits each team, and call shenanigans if I put together a stupid deal from here on out.<br /><br /><b>Brewers</b><br />Brewers get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Geoff Jenkins, Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, Jeff Cirillo, and Rickie Weeks<br /><br /><b>Cardinals</b><br />Cards get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Scott Speizio, and Colby Rasmus<br /><br /><b>Cubs</b><br />Cubs get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Prior, Scott Eyre, and Juan Pierre<br /><br /><b>Devil Rays</b><br />Rays get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Jorge Cantu, Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes, J.P. Howell, and Edwin Jackson<br /><br /><b>Diamondbacks</b><br />DBacks get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista, Luis Vizcaino, and Jorge Julio<br /><br /><b>Dodgers</b><br />Dodgers get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Wilson Betemit, and Kenny Lofton<br /><br /><b><a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/07/trading-arod-san-francisco-giants.html">Giants</a></b><br /><br /><b>Indians</b><br />Tribe gets: ARod<br />Yankees get: Jake Westbrook, Jason Michaels, Rafael Betancourt, Casey Blake, and Jeremy Guthrie<br /><br /><b><a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/07/most-unlikely-return.html">Mariners</a></b><br /><br /><b>Marlins</b><br />Fish get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen, and Joe Borowski<br /><br /><b><a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/07/24-1-revisited-rod-to-mets.html">Mets</a></b><br /><br /><b>Nationals</b><br />Nats get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Soriano, Vidro, <del>Bill Bray</del> and Alex Escobar<br /><br /><b>Orioles</b><br />O's get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Tejada, Erik Bedard<br /><br /><b>Padres</b><br />Pad People get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, Woody Williams, Bobby Hill, and Adrian Gonzalez<br /><br /><b>Phillies</b><br />Phils get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Jon Lieber, Aaron Rowand, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell<br /><br /><b>Pirates</b><br />Bucs get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Freddy Sanchez, Craig Wilson, Oliver Perez, Ian Snell, and Mike Gonzalez<br /><br /><b>Rangers</b><br />Rangers get: Three hundred gun-totin' vigilantes storming Arlington<br />Yankees get: Brian Cashman hanging up the phone, debating whether or not to send choppers for Jon Daniels's body<br /><br /><b>Red Sox</b><br />BoSox get: ARod, Jason Giambi<br />Yankees get: Manny, Papi<br />(If <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/28/what-happened-how-to-help/">Ben Broussard can</a> take down <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/29/why-david-corcoran-destroys-everything-he-touches/">USSMariner</a>, then this trade might collapse the entire interweb.)<br /><br /><b>Reds</b><br />Reds get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Ryan Freel, Junior, Bronson Arroyo, and Bill Bray<br /><br /><b>Rockies</b><br />Rox get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Aaron Cook, Brian Fuentes, and Todd Helton<br /><br /><b>Royals</b><br />Royals get: You get nothing! You lose! Good day sir!<br />Yankees get: N/A<br /><br /><b>Tigers</b><br />Tigers get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Carlos Guillen, Kenny Rogers, Magglio, and Zach Miner<br /><br /><b>Twins</b><br />Twinkies get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Brad Radke, Boof Bonser, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, and Michael Cuddyer<br /><br /><b>White Sox</b><br />ChiSox get: ARod<br />Yankees get: Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik, Ray Liotta, and Josh Fields<br /><br />You still with me? Congratulations. Without even taking into account salary considerations, you see what a foolish move it would be to trade ARod.<br /><br />*I couldn't pass this up: <a href="http://www.nypost.com/sports/5_questions_for_steve_phillips_sports_.htm">Steve Phillips did a 5 Questions bit</a> for the New York Post. The logic he gave for trading ARod is as follows: <i>This has been going on for two years. The problem is that reality doesn't mean anything. There is this notion that he never hits in the clutch. There is this notion that A-Rod never makes a play. He has actually hit with runners in scoring position. I just don't think people are ever going to give him a break in New York... I just don't see how he is going to get out of [the abuse] in New York. If being the MVP, if being the Player of the Month, doesn't do it, then he is not going to do it. What happens is you see his performance start to deteriorate because he does care and he wants to earn the fans' respect.</i> In other words, ARod's been abused by fans for two years and has been the AL MVP and won Player of the Month awards, but the booing obviously affects him. Yes, Steve. Clearly, he's just a shell of a baseball player because of the booing.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153898682487419482006-07-26T02:59:00.000-04:002006-07-26T03:24:42.913-04:00A Most Unlikely Return?Since the trend 'round these parts seems to be figuring out what one's favored team would/should give up in order to acquire Alex Rodriguez, it figures that I might as well examine what it would take to return A-Rod to the organization which made him the first overall pick in the 1993 amateur draft. With the Mariners in the midst of a rather pathetic playoff race in the AL West, trade scenarios are always fun, especially when they involve the most hated ex-player in team history.<br /><br /><b>Mariner assets:</b> The biggest is clearly "King" Felix Hernadez. Despite struggling at times this year, he's still one of, if not the, best pitching prospects in baseball. Just 20, he's got fanastic stuff and will be cheap and controlled for a few more years down the road. Behind him, the Mariners have a pair of young middle infielders, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez. Lopez was an all-star second baseman this year, while Betancourt is hitting nearly .300 and playing stellar defense. Recently-promoted centerfielder Adam Jones, also just 20, looks to be a star in the making as well. As far as more established players go, the Mariners have stud relievers Rafael Soriano (who perhaps could be reconverted to a starter) and JJ Putz, starter Gil Meche, third baseman Adrian Beltre, first baseman Richie Sexson, and outfielders Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki. Catcher Kenji Johjima, just a rookie, is another compelling player. The farm system is rather barren. Last year's first round pick, catcher Jeff Clement has looked decent, while Chris Snelling is a talented hitter who is frequently injured. Beyond that, it's the usual grab bag of power arms, guys with command problems, and hitters who either strike out too much and/or lack power. Basically, if a deal were to happen, it would almost certain involve guys on the big league roster.<br /><br /><b>Who the Yankees would want:</b> King Felix, first and foremost. He's the only guy on the Mariners who could one day equal A-Rod in value. But I'd be stunned if he were moved: while this year has been disappointing at times, he's got almost limitless potential and is just 20. If the Yankees want youngsters, Jones is probably the next guy on their list. He fills a vital need by giving them some youth in the outfield, and he's got the potential to be a Mike Cameron/Eric Davis-type player. Assuming the Yankees wanted help this year, they could also look to grab either Ichiro or Ibanez. Ibanez has the added value of being cheap both this year and next, while Ichiro, though not in A-Rod's league, costs a fair chunk of change. Pitching help would be hard to come by from the M's: Meche could be made available, and the Mariners would gladly throw in either Jarrod Washburn, Jamie Moyer (though he has a no-trade clause due to being a 5-and-10 player), or Joel Pineiro.<br /><br />On the Mariners end, unless the Yankees picked up a lot of A-Rod's deal, any potential trade would have to include Beltre: first of all, he'd be expendable with A-Rod, and second of all they've committed a lot of money to him. He might be attractive to the Yankees: he's still young, and has tons of potential, and he's a much better fielder than A-Rod. Perhaps in that lineup he might see better pitches and succeed.<br /><br />So here's the prospective deal: the Mariners send Beltre, Ibanez, Jones, and Meche to the Yankees for A-Rod. The Yankees get back an outfielder better than anyone they have on the field currently, plus a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy in Meche. They get a natural third baseman in Beltre who, while no guarantee to come even close to A-Rod's production <b>does</b> have that massive 2004 season in his history. Who knows, he might be able to regain his form in pinstripes. They also get a talented young outfielder who could become the latest in a long line of Yankee greats in center. The Mariners get back perhaps the top player in baseball, and while losing Jones hurts, the other parts are fairly easy to replace: Meche is going to be a free agent this offseason anyhow, Ibanez has been productive but could drop off the face of the earth, and Beltre has been a massive failure in Seattle.<br /><br /><b>Would the Yankees do it?</b> Probably not. I doubt they're actively shopping A-Rod, but if they were I'd have to imagine they could get more in return. On the other hand, this deal gives them more usable parts then, say, <a target="_blank" href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/07/24-1-revisited-rod-to-mets.html">Ben's deal</a>, so it's a possibility.<br /><br /><b>Would the Mariners do it?</b> From a talent standpoint they'd be stupid not to. They give up one top prospect in order to get back one of the best players in baseball. While they'd take on slightly more salary, it would be worth it to add a bat like Rodriguez's to the lineup. But then again, there's the PR factor. I was at the first game A-Rod played in Seattle after signing with Texas, and while the fan reaction has mellowed since then he's still the most-hated former Mariner in history. It would take a rather large set of, um, courage on the part of Bill Bavasi to bring him back, and while Seattle is far more civil then New York he'd be booed almost instantly unless he produced. In the end, I think the baggage and the money probably scare the Mariners off, but it's a tough call.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153881411980616762006-07-25T22:36:00.000-04:002006-07-28T02:22:12.256-04:00Trading ARod: San Francisco GiantsFans in the Bronx have been painting an ugly self-portrait recently, what with booing Alex Rodriguez at every opportunity. Let me repeat: booing the best all-around player in baseball at every opportunity. <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/15115704.htm">National commentators</a> are circling like vultures, and <a href="http://www.salon.com/sports/col/kaufman/2006/07/24/monday/">voices</a> of <a href="http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060717&content_id=1405299&oid=36019&vkey=6">reason</a> keep falling on <a href="http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060724&content_id=1405717&oid=36019&vkey=6">deaf</a> <a href="http://forums.espn.go.com/espn/thread?forumID=427&threadID=4010563&lastPostID=26028492">ears</a>.<br /><br />So, what to do? Obviously, Sportszilla has to figure out if our knee-jerk reaction is correct, if it really would be idiotic for the Yankees to trade ARod. In the first of what could become a series, I'll examine what the San Francisco Giants would have to give up in order to get Rodriguez. The working assumption is that every team in MLB would gladly make room for ARod, but what would they have to give up to get him?<br /><br /><b>GIANTS' ASSETS</b><br />Jason Schmidt is a free agent after this season. He's in his early thirties, so a five year deal at more than 10 million dollars per year could be a disaster at the back end. Folks in the Bay Area have been speculating that Schmidt is likely to return to his Pacific Northwest roots and sign with the Mariners this offseason, though Brian Sabean hasn't ruled out an attempt to re-sign him. Matt Morris has pitched better of late, but his terrible start to the season might portend worse things in the next two years of his contract. Jamey Wright is trash. Matt Cain is the prize young pitcher carrying the organization's hopes for the future. In an ideal world, in the next few years, Cain makes the leap like Scott Kazmir, Noah Lowry defies his list of comparables to become the poor man's Andy Pettitte, and Tim Lincecum, this year's tenth overall draft pick, rides the fast track to the majors and bursts on the scene with mid-career David Cone numbers. <a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml">Jonathan Sanchez</a> had a tremendous season in the Sally League last year, and is already helping out in the big league bullpen. While he could be a great reliever right away, his highest upside is as a starter. Armando Benitez is the closer, but something tells me the Yankees wouldn't want to go down that road again. So, while the Giants have some interesting pitching prospects that will be developing over the next few years, nothing is assured, and they will almost certainly look to bolster their staff through free agency as they move forward.<br /><br />Among the hitters, Barry Bonds is going nowhere this season. Randy Winn signed a contract extension prior to this season that runs through 2009 with a full no trade clause through 2007. Omar Vizquel and Mark Sweeney are signed through 2007. Eliezer Alfonzo is a rookie. Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, and Steve Finley will all be free agents after this season. As far as prospects, the Giants have a barren system. Kevin Frandsen isn't much more than a utility prospect. In 2005, <a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Todd-Linden.shtml">Todd Linden</a> had one of the best seasons the Pacific Coast League has seen in recent memory, but he's 26 years old and already saddled with the AAAA label. Travis Ishikawa is young, <a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/players/I/Travis-Ishikawa.shtml">crushed the ball in the Cal League</a> last season, but <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=448170&tm=ConEL&bp=b">appears to have stalled in AA</a> this year.<br /><br /><b>WHO WOULD THE YANKEES WANT?</b><br />Jason Schmidt is the guy who sticks out most. The Yankees need starting pitching, and the Giants have to clear payroll in order to take on the 20 million dollars or so that the Yankees are paying ARod. In light of that pitching deficiency, all the young pitchers (except Lincecum, who can't be traded by rule) are enticing. Moises Alou must also look fairly intriguing, since neither Gary Sheffield nor Hideki Matsui is likely to be back before the end of the season, but injury concerns will be a major issue for the rest of his career. Robinson Cano is decent, but Ray Durham has slugged well over .500 this season and would fit nicely behind Posada in the lineup. Cano can move to third if Shea Hillenbrand or Pedro Feliz aren't included in the deal.<br /><br /><b>FINAL PROPOSAL</b><br />Giants get: Alex Rodriguez ($20 million) (70RC)<br />Yankees get: Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Ray Durham, Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand ($30.5 million) (194RC, Hillenbrand excluded)<br /><br />The Yanks would insert both pitchers into the rotation to go with Johnson, Mussina, and Wang, promptly DFA Sidney Ponson and Shawn Chacon, and probably move Jaret Wright to the bullpen. Alou would play LF. Durham would play 2B with Cano moving to 3B. Hillenbrand would play 1B so that Giambi can DH. Goodbye Andy Phillips. Goodbye Bubba Crosby. Goodbye Nick Green. Suddenly, the Yankees have a deeper lineup and rotation. While losing ARod hurts, the pitching takes a leap forward. After the season, only Lowry would be guaranteed to stay, as the rest are free agents. However, combined with the assumed departures of Sheffield and Bernie Williams, the exodus also frees up lots of money to blow on free agents. Hark! Barry Zito approaches! Where art thou, Carlos Lee?<br /><br /><font face="Courier New">CF Damon<br />SS Jeter<br />DH Giambi<br />LF Alou<br />C Posada<br />2B Durham<br />1B Hillenbrand<br />3B Cano<br />RF Williams<br /><br />SP Mussina<br />SP Schmidt<br />SP Johnson<br />SP Wang<br />SP Lowry</font><br /><br />The Giants would move Sanchez and Hennessey into the rotation. For the rest of this year, that means there'd be only two surefire Major Leaguer starting games (Cain, Morris), and the rest are shaky propositions. Todd Linden would split time with Steve Finley, forcing Randy Winn to split time between CF and RF since Finley won't play corner OF. What they would do with ARod would depend on Omar Vizquel. If Omar refuses to move, ARod plays 3B and Feliz moves to 1B or plays more corner OF. Kevin Frandsen would then be asked to take over at 2B. If Omar is willing to move to 2B, ARod can play SS, Feliz stays at 3B, and Mark Sweeney platoons at 1B with Todd Greene. The lineup has a fearsome twosome in the 3-4 slots and isn't an embarrassment at any of the other positions (unless you think Linden will never be more than the destitute man's Russell Branyan). After the season, Bonds's contract will be off the books in addition to the contracts of the guys they traded away and didn't pay for the rest of this season. Some of that money will go to ARod, who is only guaranteed through 2007, since he can opt out in 2008-2010. However, with all the young pitchers, there will still be money left over to make a non-insulting offer to Bonds if he wants to play another season and go after lower-tier free agents such as Byung Hyun Kim or Jay Payton, or re-sign Feliz.<br /><br /><font face="Courier New">CF Winn<br />2B Vizquel<br />SS Rodriguez<br />LF Bonds<br />3B Feliz<br />1B Sweeney/Greene<br />RF Linden<br />C Alfonzo<br /><br />SP Cain<br />SP Morris<br />SP Sanchez<br />SP Hennessey<br />SP Wright</font><br /><br /><b>WOULD THEY DO IT?</b><br />The Giants wouldn't do it this year. The ecstasy of acquiring Rodriguez would be tempered by the impression that the team had given up on this season when they were in the thick of things. The Runs Created also shed light on why this is ultimately a tough deal for the Giants to accept even in a PR-less video game world. According to that number, Jason Schmidt has been the most valuable player this year among all the players in the trade. Furthermore, despite compiling less than half the RC of the guys going to New York, Rodriguez is being paid two-thirds their salary. If the Yankees pick up part of ARod's tab, say, another 5 or 6 million dollars per year, then the deal becomes much more manageable and the Giants would almost certainly have to do it, since it would essentially amount to trading Lowry for ARod.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153847472192602672006-07-25T12:58:00.000-04:002006-07-25T13:11:14.446-04:00Harolding a New AgeSo the sad news came to my attention this morning: Harold Reynolds, former Mariner second baseman and current ESPN broadcaster has, apparently, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.deadspin.com/sports/top/say-goodnight-harold-189610.php">been fired</a>. At the present moment, no particular reason has been given: he did have a rather heated exchange with resident dugong/ex-Phillie John Kruk a few days ago, but I find it hard to believe that even as incompetant an organization as ESPN would fire him for that.<br /><br />Growing up, Baseball Tonight was my favorite program, at least after Keith Olberman left the network and SportsCenter turned into the bloated special features-fest it is today. When you had Ravech, Reynolds, and Peter Gammons you knew you were getting the best 30 minutes of baseball talk the WorldWide Leader could put on the air.<br /><br />Sadly, that combo rarely appeared together, as we were more often subjected to the horrors that were Kruk, Jeff Brantley, Rob Dibble, Steve Phillips, and many others. It's as if ESPN realized they had a good show and decided to make it nearly unwatchable as much as possible.<br /><br />So the question is, where does ESPN go from here? Granted, they'll probably just toss in another ex-player, or give us more Tino Martinez/Orestes Destrada, but maybe, just maybe, they'll get creative. Considering the increasing influence of sabermetrics, why not hire someone who can counter the inevitable "Josh Beckett is having a great year because he's got 13 wins nonsense" with the counterpoint that, gosh, he's getting a hell of a lot of run support and generally his numbers suck. I'm sure there must be someone at Baseball Prospectus, or the Hardball Times, or something like that who could fit as an on-air personality. ESPN already has the ex-player role filled, and fills the journalist role with the host (and Gammons or Kurkjian whenever they're on). So why not give a voice to the statistician/fan? I know I'd watch it...Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153809894757442122006-07-25T00:11:00.000-04:002006-07-25T03:23:23.823-04:00You Don't Shea. Hillenbrand's A Giant.When the Giants traded Jeremy Accardo for the recently DFAed Shea Hillenbrand and middle reliever Vinny Chulk, I felt a twinge of sickness in my stomach. Giants fans had started to regard <a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Jeremy-Accardo.shtml">Accardo</a> as the team's closer of the future; they could have traded Proven Closer(tm) Armando Benitez for whatever they could get this offseason, inserted Accardo into the role and put the salary savings into signing a hitter or starting pitcher. Though his minor league numbers are far from overwhelming, they're decent--and man, is his stuff electric. To sum up, this is not Gary Majewski. More like Bill Bray. And the Giants got a LOT less than the Nats did.<br /><br />This may be the first time I'm <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=22&entry_id=7336">in agreement</a> with <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/09/14/SPG2JEN50G1.DTL">Bruce Jenkins</a> about something baseball-related, but at least I can take solace in knowing his reasoning is completely different from mine. While Jenkins thinks the deal was bad because Hillenbrand is a bad apple and could contaminate the team's chemistry (a conclusion he could only reach from personal contact with the players, affirming his role as "expert" voice), I'm much more concerned about a little thing called on-field production. Though some people seem to be comparing Hillenbrand to Lance Niekro, and it's really no comparison with Niekro's putrid season with the stick, Sir Lancelot is toiling for Fresno in the PCL; the comparison should be between what Hillenbrand will likely do down the stretch and what Mark Sweeney will likely do. Let's look at the numbers as I laid them out in a <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/7/22/14558/0475">diary on McCoveyChronicles</a>, slightly edited for clarity:<br /><br /><font face="Courier New">2006 Hillenbrand: 1.1 WARP<br />(80 games, 316 PAs, God knows how much DHing kept the WARP from sinking, as he's firmly below average--1B--to awful--3B--with the leather)<br /><br />2006 Mark Sweeney: 1.3 WARP<br />(73 games, 215 PAs, defense in LF actually hurts him, but defense at 1B has been excellent)<br /><br />(Sh**s and Giggles) 2006 Lance Niekro: 0.4 WARP<br />(52 games, 191 PAs, best defensive 1B in the game)<br /><br />2006 Vinny Chulk: 4.66 FIP<br /><br />2006 Jeremy Accardo 2.50 FIP(!!!)<br />For reference, of NL relievers who had thrown more than 35 IP through 7/22, that's THIRD, and it's roughly in line with Bobby Jenks and Scot Shields's FIPs.<br /><br />Using more <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com">HardballTimes</a> metrics, not taking fielding into account:<br /><br />Sweeney: 28 RC in 215 PAs (5.4 RC/G)<br />Accardo: 16 PRC in 40.3 IP<br />Total up to date: 44<br /><br />Hillenbrand: 38 RC in 319 PAs (5.0 RC/G)<br />Chulk: 7 PRC in 24 IP<br />Total up to date: 45</font><br /><br />So, the total Runs Created is about equal up to this point in the season, and it appears that Hillenbrand is the best player changing teams. However, after adjusting for playing time, Sweeney has outproduced Hillenbrand, and Accardo has still outproduced the Vincredible Chulk.<br /><br />While Sweeney has been shielded from facing lefties for the past few years because he simply can't hit them, he's better than Hillenbrand against righties. Coupled with his superior fielding, it makes sense that the two ought to be paired in a fairly strict platoon, with Hillenbrand also spelling Pedro Feliz at third base on occasion. However, that's not how the Giants plan on using them. Hillenbrand will get the bulk of the starts, and Sweeney will once again be relegated to bench duty. But even if the Giants were to employ a platoon, they already had a legitimately decent right-handed partner for Sweeney in backup catcher Todd Greene.<br /><br /><font face="Courier New">Greene L/R Splits 2003-05<br />vs. R: 235/258/421<br />vs. L: 288/335/540<br /><br />Hillenbrand L/R Splits 2003-05<br />vs. R: 285/329/438<br />vs. L: 315/353/516</font><br /><br />In other words, Greene, who has played some first base this year, has a comparable line against lefties and could have stepped in as a Matt Lecroy clone, a lefty-mashing 1B/C combo. But no. The Giants had to trade a young guy with nasty stuff for a superfluous rental whose previous manager challenged him to a fight. I would have much preferred if the Giants traded one of their <a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Jack-Taschner.shtml">less heralded young middle relievers</a> for a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/coraal01.shtml">bench upgrade</a>; <a href="http://josevizcaino.tripod.com/">Jose Vizcaino</a> shouldn't be on anyone's roster, let alone getting important pinch hit opportunities.<br /><br />It looks like there's a <a href="http://leftymalo.blogspot.com/2006_07_01_leftymalo_archive.html#115376251000824622">wide variety of opinion on the deal</a>, but in this household, I come down on the "Oh God no!" side of the equation.<br /><br />But I can still see the "Sure, why not?" side from here.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153370750623063072006-07-20T00:16:00.000-04:002006-07-20T01:52:30.373-04:00All Star Game 2007: Terrible TimingFor those of you who don't live in the Bay Area, you are forgiven if you didn't know MLB's 2007 All Star Game will be in San Francisco. The Midsummer Exhibition Game (that counts) hasn't been in my hometown since 1984, when my one and a half year old self slept through Fernando Valenzuela and Dwight Gooden striking out six straight American Leaguers. Rumor and innuendo have it that the game hasn't been held in San Francisco since the new ballpark was built, even though it's usually considered one of the two or three most beautiful parks in the game, because Bud Selig was sticking it to the team for funding construction privately; it's a terrible precedent you know, not holding a community hostage for tens of millions of dollars.<br /><br />Well, good ol' Bud has put himself in a bit of a pickle, you see. He held out on giving San Francisco an All Star Game for as long as he could without looking <i>too</i> petty, but in doing so he inadvertently scheduled the most super high profile midseason game right where the shadows of the BALCO case loom largest (he could have held out another year, but decided to set a "bold" precedent of his own by scheduling two straight NL parks in a row... but, since this time it "counts", isn't that giving the NL an unfair advantage?).<br /><br /><a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/06/baseball-without-heroes.html">Zach</a>, <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/03/asterisk.html">Ben</a>, and <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/05/why-we-cheer-bonds-and-why-you.html">I have discussed</a> PEDs before, and I can't imagine we won't still be thinking about PED implications come 2007, let alone the mainstream media, which will almost certainly have a field day writing obligatory "the bright lights are on the jewel by the bay, but everyone is really thinking about a <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/10/18/MNGLC2EG4O1.DTL">strip mall in Burlingame</a>" stories. God help Jason Giambi if he makes the team, or anyone else who has been connected to PED use. I predict more than the usual suspicious "injuries" used as an excuse to stay away from the game, especially if the <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/07/19/sports/s160248D85.DTL">Bonds indictment</a> comes down today.<br /><br />Anyway, since my view all along has been that all pro sports are now tainted, I have no problem lampooning MLB and its certainly insufficient drug policy. Inspired by <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/7/19/171630/727">this thread</a> on <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com">McCoveyChronicles</a>, I've made a parody of the 2007 ASG logo. You can look at the original <a href="http://www.sportslogos.net/logo.php?lo=a0e98l8xvvfrtti3ghpg">here</a>. <br /><br /><img src="http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b62/deadteddy8/331656a7.gif" width=500>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153333227567675502006-07-19T14:20:00.000-04:002006-07-19T14:20:27.973-04:00So Who's to Blame?It's clear that I'm not <a target="_blank" href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/278056_carlson19.html">waking up</a> from my <a target="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/miller/278074_miller19.html">nightmare</a> any time soon. While a few people are trying to find the <a target="_blank" href="http://sonicscentral.com/blog/?p=712">silver lining</a>, I'm extremely skeptical that the Sonics will remain in Seattle past 2010 at the latest.<br /><br />So that brings us to the big question: who's to blame for the departure of the Sonics, my favorite team and the only team to win a major championship in Seattle history? I've got a few suspects lined up.<br /><br /><b>Barry Ackerley:</b> The former owner of the Sonics, he's the guy who agreed to the original terms of the KeyArena lease which are now so unpalatable to Howard Schultz and, presumably, the new ownership. It was also under Ackerley that the team agreed to a half-assed renovation of the Coliseum that would only displace them for one season, as opposed to a larger-scale plan which might have resulted in an arena that was still viable ten years later. At the time, the Sonics owned the city: the Mariners were terrible, the Seahawks were worse, Husky basketball was a non-factor, and Husky football was on probation for recruiting violations under Don James. If ever the city, the legistlature, and the fans were going to come together and pony up the dough (as they'd do for the Mariners and Seahawks, teams with shorter and less glorious histories than the Sonics), that was the time, and Ackerley blew it.<br /><br /><b>Howard Schultz:</b> The most recent ex-Sonic owner, he's the guy who came in touting a five-year plan to win a championship. Instead, it appears his five-year plan was to sell the Sonics off to the highest bidder. For all of his complaints about the lease and the arena, here's one thing I don't get: those problems existed in 2001, when he bought the team. For a guy who's supposedly a shrewd businessman (he's the founder and owner of Starbucks, after all), it doesn't speak all that highly of his abilities that he got himself in so far over his head. Under his tenure, the Sonics made the playoffs just twice in five years, which ain't too good considering more then half the teams in the league make the playoffs each year. He let his personal feelings towards players impact personnel decisions, and refused to spend money on the team to back up that championship promise. In the end, if the Sonics do move, he'll go down as the man who sold out his city.<br /><br /><b>The National Basketball Association:</b> Even given all of the above, the financial model for the NBA is broken. While David Stern has done some good in getting player salaries under control, there's a lot more to be done. Too much money is spent on unproven players, something that doesn't really happen in baseball or football (or at least not on nearly the same level). Ticket and merchandise prices have continued to escalate even as the national, and local, economy has stagnated. Plus, he's created an environment where teams can, and do, move around. The league has had to admit it made mistakes with the Vancouver Grizzlies, and then had the whole Hornets debacle, where George Shinn basically forced his way out of Charlotte to New Orleans, which now looks like a really bad idea. Still, it's one thing for teams with a relatively short history, like the Hornets or Grizzlies, or even the Kansas City/Sacramento Kings to move. But the Sonics would be the longest-tenured team (by far) ever to move in the NBA, and that would reflect poorly on the league.<br /><br /><b>Seattle and Washington State politicians:</b> From seeming disinterested in facilitating a solution to making incindiary quotes like "the Sonics add no cultural value to Seattle," they've been at best neutral, and most of the time an impediment to keeping the Sonics in Seattle. Seattle has nearly lost its other two professional franchises over the last ten years or so, and while the politicians are, for the most part, different, there's still an attitude surrounding the legislature that sports don't matter, and that makes it hard to keep teams. Right or wrong, public money is necessary to build new arenas, and for some reason the legislature and city council have been happy to dump money down the monorail pit but won't spend money to actually do something.<br /><br /><b>Seattlites:</b> Of course, some of the blame lies with the city and the fan base. While high ticket prices may make it unpaletable to go to games, and while mediocrity is hard to support, it doesn't change the fact that the fanbase has been exceedingly disinterested in supporting the Sonics. Of course, we could have said the same thing about the Seahawks before the last few years, and the same could be said about the Mariners. Like most sports fans, Seattlites will get behind a winner, no matter the sport. But the sad fact is, even when the team was good (like 2004-2005), the fan base was alarmingly apathetic. Maybe people here really don't care about the NBA: considering the state of the league, I can't say I blame them if that's the case.<br /><br />The truth is that there's going to be plenty of blame to go around. While Schultz will probably be the guy who goes down as the villan, we're all to blame in a way for letting the NBA, and the Sonics, think that we don't care about basketball.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153264340613498302006-07-18T18:45:00.000-04:002006-07-18T19:12:21.113-04:00A Gut-Punch"Bye bye Sonics."<br /><br />That's the text message I received from a "friend" earlier today. I was out at lunch with my mother when the ominous words flashed across my cell phone screen, so there was little I could do but accept the sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. When I got home, my destination was SupersonicsSoul, where the bad news <a target="_blank" href="http://www.supersonicsoul.com/2006/07/bomb-has-dropped.html">was confirmed</a>. A few angry phone calls later, and here I am, sitting in front of my computer, trying to deal with the fact that in all likelihood my favorite team will be playing games sooner or later in Oklahoma City.<br /><br />Seattlites have been through this before: Only a miraculous 1995 season and some legislative shenanigans kept the Mariners from moving to Tampa Bay (yeah, that worked out real well for baseball), and before selling the Seahawks to Paul Allen, Ken Behring had the team loaded up and ready to move to Los Angeles. So I'm not exactly unfamiliar with the possibilities of losing a franchise.<br /><br />But the Sonics are different. They were the first professional franchise in Seattle: this year will be their 40th. They're still the only professional team to win a major championship in Seattle (1979). Heck, the only other team to do it, the Storm, will also be moving. The Sonics owned Seattle for much of my childhood: the Seahawks were bad and the Mariners were worse while the Sonics were making eight straight trips to the playoffs, including a run to the NBA Finals.<br /><br />Plus, they're different for me. They were the team my father and I shared: he's always been more a basketball fan than any other sport, and I have too. Watching, and going, to Sonic games was a big part of my childhood and a way for the two of us to spend time together. It still is.<br /><br />Now granted, the move hasn't been anounced. And I can still hold out hope that the Hornets end up in Oklahoma City instead of the Sonics, or that David Stern will realize that it looks bad for his league to move a team out of a city where it's been for 40 years. Or even that the new ownership and the city will reach some sort of agreement to keep the team around. Maybe they'll have to do what the 1995 Mariners did and electrify the city in order to generate some grassroots support. But deep down, it feels like sooner or later we're going to have to say goodbye.<br /><br />And when we do, the NBA will be dead to me. No longer will I watch, or attend, or care about games. No one forced the Sonics to sign their lease, and no one forced them to accept a remodel on the Coliseum instead of a brand new building. Similarly, nothing will force me to care about the NBA.<br /><br />So now this leaves me in a real state of limbo. Do I root for the team this year, hoping, however naively, that they won't leave? Or do I cut them off entirely, hardening my heart before the almost-inevitable departure? It's a tough choice to have to make. I'm sure I'll have more to say as details become available, but right now I'm not sure I can bear to write more.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1153066608093399452006-07-16T11:52:00.000-04:002006-07-16T12:17:09.350-04:00Heart of the GameYesterday was my father's birthday. For those of you who don't know him, he's quite the basketball fan. Normally we'd play basketball together on a Saturday morning, but he's still recovering from surgery on his left knee, so he had to settle for watching me and a number of his long-time basketball buddies play. Last evening, we caught a 7:00 showing of the new basketball documentary <a target="_blank" href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478166/"><i>Heart of the Game</i></a>, which was particularly appropriate since it's the story of the Roosevelt (Seattle, WA) Rough Riders girl's basketball team, and my father is indeed an alum of Roosevelt.<br /><br /><i>Heart of the Game</i>, and just about every basketball documentary made after 1994, ends up being compared to the incomparable <i>Hoop Dreams</i>, just like every sci-fi movie ends up being compared to <i>2001: A Space Oddysey</i> and every movie about a pair of semi-retarded people gets compared to <i>Dumb and Dumber</i>: they represent the pinnacle of their respective genres. <i>Heart of the Game</i> is not <i>Hoop Dreams</i> in either style or tone, but it certainly stands as a quality movie on its own.<br /><br />It centers around Bill Resler, a fifty-something tax professor at the University of Washington who takes the head coaching gig at Roosevelt on a lark: he had three daughters who played basketball, and figures at the very least he can connect with the team through that. Plus, he's got a rather unique approach to coaching teenage girls. He nearly runs them into the ground in practice and trains them to view themselves as predatory animals (wolves, lions, etc.) and the opponents as their prey (the phrase "devour the moose" is used at least 30 times throughout the film). It works, both as a way to motivate the girls (they run off a long undefeated season in their first year under Resler) and as a way to draw the audience in: few of us have ever heard girls, or women, who are so openly and joyfully agressive. One player revels in the physical contact she's allowed to have with other girls, while another seems almost sadistic in her love of inflicting pain.<br /><br />The turnaround of the team composes the first third or so of the movie, while the last two-thirds are focused on the arrival and emergence of Darnellia Russell, a preternaturally talented 14-year-old whose mother diverts her from her neighborhood school (Garfield High) so that she can attend the more middle-class Roosevelt. Russell, predictably, struggles with being surrounding by white kids for the first time in her life and nearly quits basketball. One of the best scenes in the film is when Resler recounts a showdown he has with Russell about promoting her to the varsity squad.<br /><br />The true crux of the story comes after it's revealed that during her junior year, Russell becomes pregnant with the child of her steady boyfriend. Forced to miss out on a year of basketball because the school district won't let her play, she vows to return for her fifth year of school and fourth year of basketball. The Washington Interscholastic Athletics Association (WIAA) rules her ineligable, saying that her pregnancy, because it was her own choice, doesn't constitute enough of a hardship for her to receive an exemption to play as a fifth-year senior. The team finds her a lawyer, and after earning an injunction decides to play the season with Russell despite the fact that doing so might cause them to forfeit every game of the season if the WIAA has its way.<br /><br />The court battle and Roosevelt's struggle to finally earn an elusive state championship are interwoven with the rise to power of Garfield, the school that Russell and her mother shunned years ago. Led by basketball legend Joyce Walker, the Bulldogs and Rough Riders have a number of memorable matchups.<br /><br />So what did I think of the movie? The basketball action is compelling: there's a lot of great footage and a number of close, exciting moments woven together. Considering that director Ward Serril had no idea what he was getting into when he started the project, he must consider himself damn lucky to have gotten such a compelling story.<br /><br />My biggest complaint is that while plenty of time is spent with Resler, some questions go unanswered. He mentions his daughters, but they're never seen on camera besides a couple of photos, and we don't hear at all from them about what they think about their dad and his rather interesting coaching style. Similarly, Russell gets little face time when she's not in uniform, and we get only glimpses into her personality. Her boyfriend, the father of her child, is never heard from, even when there's an on-going controversy (at least on the Seattle airwaves) about how Russell could go to school, play basketball, and raise a child. It's a short film, only 97 minutes, and I tend to think that a bit more could have been revealed about Russell, and perhaps some of her teammates. None of them comment on what it was like to deal with the distraction of having their star teammate fighting for her eligibility, and none of them talk about what it took to make the decision that could have cost them their season.<br /><br />Still, <i>Heart of the Game</i> is plenty of fun. I greatly enjoyed it, and it's recommended for any sports fan, or even those who can appreciate some of the challenges of adolecence, especially for teenage girls.<br /><br />Oh, and for full disclosure, I went to college with one of the girls in the movie...Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152999266504311522006-07-15T17:14:00.000-04:002006-07-15T17:34:36.050-04:00Empty ArenaI'm probably not the right guy here at <i>Sportszilla</i> to give you the ins and outs of USA Soccer, but the departure of Bruce Arena, however predictable it was, gives me a chance to give my thoughts on the US's poor showing in the World Cup.<br /><br />Arena was, in my mind, the single biggest culprit in what was a very disappointing showing in Germany. His decision to stick with the aging Eddie Pope cost the US goals in each of their first two matches, and a similar affection for Claudio Reyna in the middle cost them a goal in the Ghana match. Beyond that, he played an aesthetically bland and unsuccessful style, sticking with the overly-conservative 4-5-1 formation and keeping guys like Eddie Johnson and DeMarcus Beasley either tethered to the bench or in the wrong position. Unlike in previous years (1998, for example) where the US did poorly, the problem wasn't a lack of talent: while the US may not have been the most talented squad, they certainly had enough to manage more than one measly point.<br /><br />The composition of the squad will certainly be quite different in 2010, and who knows how a different coach will approach things. I'd love to see the US try and play a more wide-open, free-flowing style of soccer to exploit the athleticism and ball-handling of some of their top players, but that will in part be dictated by how much growth guys like Beasley, Landon Donovan, and Freddy Adu undergo in the next four years. In any case, 2010 will be in some ways an interesting test for US Soccer: the matches won't be in Europe, so they'll have a fighting chance; on the other hand, it's uncertain if the American fanbase will stay devoted after such a poor showing.<br /><br />Whomever they bring in to coach, and however the team does in 2010, it's clear that Arena's tenure was on the whole a good one for the US. He resurrected the team after the debacle of 1998, capitalized on a favorable draw to get the team into the quarters in 2002, and has certainly brought the team to a new level of reknown both nationally and internationally. He's leaving US Soccer in much better shape then he found it, but it now becomes the job of someone else (Juergen Klinsmann, anyone?) to get the team over the hump and turn them into true World Cup contenders.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152868287077655202006-07-14T04:13:00.000-04:002006-07-14T05:13:41.590-04:00Consensus Reaction to Reds/Nats Trade: WTF?!?!If there's anything to the "wisdom of crowds", then Wayne Krivsky looks like a guy who had his pants stolen by a seagull. Clearly, we're not alone in thinking <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/07/move-it.html">this was one of the all-time dumbest moves</a>, as we take a look at reaction from around the sports blogosphere to the Day Jim Bowden Robbed the Reds...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.redreporter.com/story/2006/7/14/24051/6016">Red Reporter</a> -- "So I've thought about it, and I can honestly say that this is the worst trade the Reds have made in my lifetime."<br /><br /><a href="http://redlegnation.com/2006/07/13/reds-trade-austin-kearns-and-felipe-lopez-to-washingtone/">Redleg Nation</a> -- "I take back everything good I’ve ever said about Reds GM Wayne Krivsky. Jim Bowden robbed Krivsky today. This is very disappointing. Can anyone defend this trade?"<br /><br /><a href="http://www.miraclemets.net/2006/07/reds-got-raped.html">MiracleMets.net</a> -- "The Reds basically just conceded the NL Central to the Cardinals, or at the very least, to a team that isn't them. I feel bad for them. How does a team make a trade where the three best players involved all go one way?"<br /><br /><a href="http://completesports.blogspot.com/2006/07/stock-up-on-canned-goods.html">Complete Sports</a> -- "Stock up on canned goods. Yes folks, go out right now. Buy a generator as well while you're out. What's the occasion? Well, not only did Jim Bowden get the better end of a deal, he absolutely fleeced the Reds today."<br /><br /><a href="http://federalbaseball.com/story/2006/7/13/194858/994">Federal Baseball</a> -- "...why this trade? Why deal two out of the main three cogs in his team's lineup (Lopez and Kearns are one-two in at-bats, though Adam Dunn's walks push Kearns to a close third in plate appearances)---including his starting shortstop---for an immediate return of two middle relievers, a middling shortstop, and a ultility infielder who, for all we know, might become as familiar with the International League as he has with the Pacific Coast League?"<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cincinnati_reds_tanked_the_2006_season/">BTF</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/mlbl2/">more BTF</a> -- "What else can be said about this trade? I’ve heard some talk about a Kearns trade this morning, but I never envisioned the horror that was unleashed by Wayne Krivsky on Cincinnati fans..." and, "Now it's true if Austin Kearns is your best player then you don't have a great team. But the solution to that problem isn't to trade your best player for middle relievers it's to go get better players."<br /><br /><a href="http://jasonballot.blogspot.com/2006/07/someone-please-explain-this-one-to-me.html">Dissent Into Madness</a> (GREAT blog title, btw) -- "Is Reds GM Wayne Krivsky serious? Doing whippits?"<br /><br /><a href="http://mikesrants.baseballtoaster.com/archives/431084.html">Mike's Rants</a> -- "I cannot see how this trade helps the Reds now or in the future. I can't possibly see what they think they got out of the trade."<br /><br /><a href="http://athleticsnation.com/story/2006/7/13/161734/080">Athletics Nation</a> (diary) -- "Unless Kearns and Lopez are avian flu carriers, I don't understand this deal from the Reds' perspective at all."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/7/13/161558/268">McCovey Chronicles</a> (diary) -- "I'm convinced that pharmaceuticals contributed to the decision-making here."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/7/13/155437/683">Minor League Ball</a> (diary) -- "Did Felipe Lopez kick Krivisky's baby or something? This makes no sense."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.redscuttingedge.com/2006/07/13/sick-joke/">The Cutting Edge</a> -- "Excuse while I go vomit. And curse and swear. And vomit some more."<br /><br />Now, the MSM...<br /><br /><a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5782006">Ken Rosenthal</a> (FoxSports.com) -- "Upon learning of the deal, one rival general manager was dumbfounded."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/mlb/article/0,2777,DRMN_23924_4843818,00.html">Tracy Ringolsby</a> (Rocky Mountain News, and possibly the only guy who seems to think the Reds did the right thing in this situation...) -- "Clayton was important to the Reds because they had to replace Lopez at shortstop, but Krivsky said he also thinks Clayton, 36, will provide a mature influence for talented second baseman Brandon Phillips."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.miamicountylife.com/articles/2006/07/14/sports/sports52.txt">Ben Sanders</a> (Peru Tribune) -- "Fascinating. You mean players who play nine innings day in and day out are more valuable than those who pitch the sixth inning every other game? Someone should inform the good folks in Cincinnati of this breakthrough in baseball strategy before they trade away Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn too. Even Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, the man who made the deal, seemed to realize he had just done something that will appear bizarre and stupid to anyone with the slightest understanding of baseball."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.columbusdispatch.com/reds/reds.php?story=198789">Jim Massie</a> (Columbus Dispatch) -- "The deal distressed Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn enough that both declined to comment about the deal. The two were especially close to Kearns."Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152828766922280752006-07-13T18:11:00.000-04:002006-07-13T18:48:11.566-04:00MLB Roster Action1 - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2518391">Kind of crazy</a>, but "why the hell not?" also applies.<br /><br />2 - <a href="http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/430557.html">Twenty bajillion kinds of crazy</a>. I broke the news to Ben, telling him the Reds had traded Kearns, Lopez, and Ryan Wagner to the Nats and asking him who he thought they got in return. He said, "Soriano?" Nope. "Patterson?" Nope. "Not Nick Johnson..." Nope. Then I told him who they got. Normally, when Ben hears a bad trade, he loudly lambasts the GM who got screwed. This time, he was literally speechless and didn't say anything for a few moments. Then, he thought I was messing with him. Twenty bajillion, dude.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152738181777632202006-07-12T16:00:00.000-04:002006-07-12T17:05:23.216-04:00Fox and Baseball's RootsDo you like your Joe Buck in chunks or pureed? Clearly, Major League Baseball likes its fans diced and fried. By <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aUWEuWhFjx5M&refer=home">agreeing to 7 more years of Fox, and partnering with TBS for the first round of the playoffs</a>, MLB has flagrantly ignored product quality in favor of up front cash.<br /><br />Now, I'm generally of the view that the game sells itself. Baseball fans will watch and listen to the playoffs and the World Series no matter who announces them. If Albert Pujols is hitting line drives, if David Wright is laughing about his home runs, if eight of the fifteen best teams are in the playoffs, the fans will be there. Say what you will about Joe Buck's "I refuse to get excited unless Randy Moss pretends to moon the crowd" style or <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2005/10/fight-night-mccarver.html">Timmy McCarver's</a> semi-senile <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronson_Arroyo">Brandon-isms</a>, they are not the big problem. The big problem is that Fox doesn't believe the game can sell itself.<br /><br />Football lends itself to spectacle, since each team only gets one game per week, so the carnival presentation of industrial sound effects and animations for every graphics change make sense on some level; it's difficult to overload when it's on so infrequently. For baseball, however, it's just tiresome. For the most part, local broadcasts don't pull that crap because they know the cumulative effect detracts from the product.<br /><br />Where Fox is bad for baseball is in the long term. By treating baseball like they treat football, the implicit message is that baseball is boring, <a href="http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/VA-news/VA-Pilot/issues/1996/vp960510/05100680.htm">inherently dead</a>, and <i>needs</i> extraneous kinetic energy. However, baseball's pacing and traditions are the virtues the game is built upon. The worst part of just about any modern ballpark experience, in this English major's opinion, is the loss of conversation time between innings thanks to loud music and teams' insane compulsion to create spectacle.<br /><br />It appears that MTV is the model for baseball game presentations these days, but MTV was never meant to be a group activity like watching a baseball game is. As far as actually attending games, do teams really think that fans will stay away if there isn't any loud music or t-shirt giveaways between innings? Of course not. Does Fox really believe that their ratings will drop if they don't go for sensory overload? I'd think the quality of the teams and the games would have more to do with it than anything else.<br /><br />What I'm most afraid of, though, is that Fox and MLB have created a self-fulfilling prophecy. We're at the point where there is an entire generation of baseball fans who don't know what the NBC broadcasts were like, let alone the CBS broadcasts. If Fox-style broadcasts and sensory overload at the ballpark become the norm, how can we expect kids to understand that the game is best experienced as an ongoing conversation, that it's a social exercise to heckle opposing players cleverly, to argue intelligently about the game with the fans around you? What will happen when going to a baseball game without NBA-style constant music becomes "boring", regardless of the game itself? What will happen when television broadcasts seem unspeakably dull to people if they don't see a color-coded flame telling them how hard a guy threw the pitch?<br /><br />The game will die from the roots up. Baseball has never been about spectacle except during the playoffs at the highest level. It used to be about playing with your friends on the sandlot the way basketball is played everywhere every day now. In recent years, baseball's been about getting outdoors on the grass and dirt and playing in front of your parents and your teammates' parents in organized leagues. That's your audience. All the way up through the smaller college programs, that's who watches kids play. High school football and basketball games get cheerleaders and marching bands and the drum corps and cheering sections. High school baseball games get parents talking about batting stances in the bleachers on the first base side. It's a completely different culture.<br /><br />So, when Fox decides that every game is a spectacle, it advocates a flawed picture of what's good about the game. It implies that only the exceptional is worthy of notice, and while that works for football, since every play is a relatively rare event (only about 3,200 per season) a baseball team sees more than 50,000 pitches per year. In that context, a full bore attack on the nervous system makes no sense. Rather, the drawn out character study, fleshed out by constant conversation and debate, fits the sport's nature.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152230969422419672006-07-06T20:09:00.000-04:002006-07-06T20:09:29.620-04:00Damn You PeopleIf you <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060706&content_id=1542976&vkey=allstar2006&fext=.jsp">voted for A.J. Pier*****i</a>, God help you and your progeny.<br /><br />May a <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/5/20/205435/986">catastrophic fate</a> befall you, and may the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hafnetr01.shtml">thunder of a billion line drives</a> drown out your screams.<br /><br />(Just take it easy man.)<br /><br />Calmer than you are, dude.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1152143120171817632006-07-06T02:21:00.000-04:002006-07-07T01:42:24.853-04:00Hit Ball, Catch BallWith the MLB All Star ballots counted and the <a href="http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/allstar/rosters">squads selected</a> (<a href="http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/07/ozzie-ozzie-ozzie.html">for the most part</a>), it seems a good time to publish a whimsical thought experiment Ben and I conducted the other day. The question we pondered: Would you rather have the best offensive lineup possible, or the best defensive lineup possible? My knee-jerk reaction is that I'd much rather have the best offensive lineup because, in my mind, the difference between a great hitter and a bad hitter is greater than the difference between a great defender and a bad one; the great hitters couldn't be all that bad on defense, even with the butchers among them.<br /><br />To answer the question, Ben and I reached consensus on two lineups following these ground rules:<br /><br /><i><b>1)</b> A player must have demonstrated that he can play the position we assigned him. In other words, if we had decided that Randy Winn is the best hitting center fielder, but Carlos Delgado is a better hitter, we could not say that we would put Delgado in center field just to make the offense better. On the other side, one might think that Derek Jeter would make a tremendous defensive first baseman, but since there is almost zero evidence that would work (Nomar notwithstanding), that kind of positional chicanery was out of bounds.<br /><br /><b>2)</b> If we couldn't decide between multiple players for the Offensive Team, then defense would be the tiebreaker. Offense was the tiebreaker for the Defensive Team. Otherwise, we paid no attention to the quality of the player's defense when choosing the Offensive Team, and paid no attention to offense when choosing the Defensive Team.<br /><br /><b>3)</b> By "best", we mean the players that we would want this season.</i><br /><br />We started with offense, using <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/index.html#Players">all</a> the <a href="http://www.baseballreference.com/">numbers</a> and intuition at our disposal...<br /><br /><b><u>OFFENSIVE TEAM</u></b><br /><br />Catcher - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/mauerjo01.shtml">Joe Mauer</a><br />We debated the merits of Mauer versus <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/martivi01.shtml">Victor Martinez</a>, and, in the end, we decided that since Mauer's season last year is comparable to Martinez's best seasons, and Mauer is only 23 and presently having a monster year, he's the better choice. Of course, it also doesn't hurt that he runs the bases well and is the better all around athlete.<br /><br />First Base - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hafnetr01.shtml">Travis Hafner</a><br />Fact: The past three seasons, Travis Hafner has been <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ortizda01.shtml">David Ortiz</a>'s equal with the stick. In fact, Ben and I had no problem choosing Hafner ahead of Ortiz because he's out-OPSed Papi in a home park <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor">equally as average as Fenway</a> (if anything, Fenway is FAR more conducive for doubles than Jacobs Field). If you're wondering why we chose Pronk over the best hitter in baseball...<br /><br />Third Base - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/pujolal01.shtml">Albert Pujols</a><br />Pujols actually <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4574&context=fielding">rated above-average defensively</a> as a third baseman, by Rate and Range Factor. But that wasn't our concern here. Obviously, Pujols had to be on this team; the only question was which position he should play. We chose third base, because it came down to whether we wanted <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/wrighda03.shtml">David Wright</a>, Miguel Cabrera, or Travis Hafner for the other position, and Hafner is the best among those three.<br /><br />Shortstop - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/rodrial01.shtml">Alex Rodriguez</a><br />By trade, I am an English Language Arts teacher. English teachers struggle with the prevailing notion that opinions can't be wrong. Well, I will not accept debate on this point. Alex Rodriguez is the best offensive shortstop in baseball, perhaps in history. If you think <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jeterde01.shtml">someone else</a> <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/tejadmi01.shtml">playing today</a> is better, you are wrong.<br /><br />Second Base - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/utleych01.shtml">Chase Utley</a><br />Among players for the Offensive Team, Ben and I argued longest over who should be the second baseman. On the one hand, Utley has been a patient cleanup hitter type for three seasons, and on the other, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/soriaal01.shtml">Alfonso Soriano</a> has slugged and stolen like mad for five years. In the end, despite Soriano's running threat, Utley's equal power and loads more patience combine to make him the more potent offensive force.<br /><br />Left Field - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ramirma02.shtml">Manny Ramirez</a><br />He hasn't started to decline yet. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/bondsba01.shtml">Barry Bonds</a>'s long flyballs aren't leaving the yard at the same rate, and when pitchers realize this his OBP will drop as he gets challenged more often. Again, the question was whether we'd prefer Manny or Wright (Pujols in left or at third), and, even in his mid-30s, Manny comes out on top.<br /><br />Right Field - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cabremi01.shtml">Miguel Cabrera</a><br />Again, did we want Cabrera or Wright (Pujols in right field)? Cabrera gets the nod because he's five months younger <i>and</i> has a full season's worth of experience and success on Wright. Though Cabrera's supposedly a natural third baseman, <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/rings/discussion/2006_defensive_ratings_through_june_22/">at least one metric</a> suggests the Marlins might be better off putting him elsewhere. Thus, Pujols gets the nod at third. Again, since offense is our main concern, we were hard pressed to find anyone who's a better hitter.<br /><br />Center Field - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/berkmla01.shtml">Lance Berkman</a><br />Two years ago, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/edmonji01.shtml">Jim Edmonds</a> would have been in the conversation. Five years ago, so would have <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/willibe02.shtml">Bernie Williams</a>. I brought up <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/gilesbr02.shtml">Brian Giles</a> for discussion, but we quickly dismissed him upon deciding that he's at the start of his decline phase, even after accounting for PETCO Park. Ben argued long and hard for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/beltrca01.shtml">Carlos Beltran</a>, but though Beltran has had one more season in the bigs than Berkman (Carlos is also one year younger), he's only had one truly monster season, while Berkman has had three. Though Beltran is the far better baserunner, one of the best basestealers of all time, the totality of his offensive game simply doesn't match up to Berkman's hitting prowess. Even if you want to argue that park effects have played a part, you'd be wrong because Beltran <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/1999.shtml">played</a> his <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2000.shtml">entire</a> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2001.shtml">career</a> in (sometimes <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2002.shtml">extreme</a>) <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2003.shtml">hitter's</a> parks until signing with the Mets. As for Berkman, the Juice Box has played as a moderate hitter's park except for last season, when it actually played as a pitcher's park. Finally, Berkman was the Astros' regular center fielder in 2002 and is still a reliable corner outfielder, so, while Beltran would be the choice if we were considering the complete ballplayer, Berkman is the choice to play center for this exercise.<br /><br />Moving on to defense, using <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scout.html">Tangotiger's Fans' Scouting Report</a>, ESPN's listings for <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=79&sortColumn=zoneRating">Zone Rating and Range Factor</a>, Baseball Prospectus's listing for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=143">Rate</a>, and our own impressions of general opinion for our standards...<br /><br /><b><u>DEFENSIVE TEAM</u></b><br /><br />Catcher - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5986&context=fielding">Yadier Molina</a><br />We had a hard time choosing between Molina and <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4388&context=fielding">Brian Schneider</a>, and I kept thinking we'd choose Schneider. However, the <a href="http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/11/best_of_2005_ca.html">preponderance of evidence</a> brought us to the youngest of the Backstoppin' Molina Brothers.<br /><br />First Base - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3614&context=fielding">Derrek Lee</a><br />Lee has a <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_CHN.html">sterling defensive reputation</a>, has been regarded as a slick fielder for years, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/leede02.shtml">there are numbers</a> that support the notion. I briefly considered <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3473&context=fielding">Darin Erstad</a>, but his play there has been alternately brilliant and average. That Lee is one of the better-hitting first basemen available was bonus.<br /><br />Third Base - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3507&context=fielding">Scott Rolen</a><br />Now that we're out of the Catcher/First Base Hell, the numbers available to us make a little more sense. <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=81&sortColumn=zoneRating">This year</a>, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3972&context=fielding">Mike Lowell</a> is outperforming his previous career norms, which aren't as dazzling as his reputation would suggest. Rolen, on the other hand, is once again among the best in the majors in each of our major statistical categories <i>and</i> is still held in high regard by the more subjective sources we browsed. It's been this way for years. The only other third baseman whose reputation rivals Rolen's is <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3953&context=fielding">Eric Chavez</a>, and his numbers simply aren't as impressive, this year and in years past.<br /><br />Shortstop - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4228&context=fielding">Adam Everett</a><br />He's been a top defensive shortstop for years, but when <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating">the numbers say</a> he's <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/rings/discussion/2006_defensive_ratings_through_june_22/">the best defensive shortstop this season</a> in a landslide, we only needed <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_HOU.html">moderate endorsement</a> from scouting reports to slot him in here.<br /><br />Second Base - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5029&context=fielding">Orlando Hudson</a><br />Hudson's numbers are down this year, but he's been a whiz with the leather for several years running. After taking stock of scouting reports and general reputations, the only other guy on <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=80&sortColumn=zoneRating">the list</a> ahead of him statistically that we could take seriously was <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3199&context=fielding">Mark Grudzielanek</a>. While it makes sense, in a certain light, that The Grudz would rank so highly, having come up as a shortstop, and while his numbers look pretty good next to Hudson's, his reputation doesn't compare to <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_TOR.html">the 2005 Gold Glover</a>, nor does <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SLN.html">his ranking</a> on the Fans' Scouting Report.<br /><br />Right Field - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4570&context=fielding">Ichiro!</a><br />He's almost universally regarded as <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_SEA.html">the best right fielder in baseball</a>. If the Mariners were smart, they'd play him in center field, where he played in Japan, and where he'd probably still be a plus defender. The numbers are <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=85&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=zoneRating">good enough</a> to justify the reputation, so this selection was probably the easiest for the Defensive Team.<br /><br />Center Field - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3331&context=fielding">Mike Cameron</a><br />Since leaving Seattle, Cameron's numbers say he's been merely very good instead of off the charts, as he was in 2003. However, since <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2993&context=fielding">Jim Edmonds</a> and <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3520&context=fielding">Andruw Jones</a> have each lost a few steps, and most of <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=84&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=zoneRating">the other top defenders</a> by the numbers are youngsters without much of a track record, Cameron is the choice. The only other candidate we considered was Vernon Wells, whose <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4166&context=fielding">numbers</a> this year and in recent seasons are excellent. But while the Fans' Scouting Report <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2005_TOR.html">likes him</a> almost as much as Cameron, the Padres' center fielder is still the first name that comes up in these discussions, which has to count for something, and there are still numbers that say <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/camermi01.shtml">Cameron is clearly better</a> than <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/wellsve01.shtml">Wells</a>.<br /><br />Left Field - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3592&context=fielding">Jose Guillen</a><br />Sure, we could put Wells in left field, but Guillen has such a cannon for an arm, and he's always been a great corner outfielder, that it's hard to justify choosing a career center fielder with no corner experience over him. <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3592&context=fielding">Alex Rios</a> is one of the better young outfielders in the majors, but Guillen is still in his prime, has the track record, and is actually having one of his best defensive seasons this year.<br /><br />Let's compare the lineups:<br /><br />OFFENSIVE TEAM<br />That's right. We thought Mauer was the most logical leadoff hitter.<br /><br /><font face="Courier New"><b>C - Mauer<br />SS - ARod<br />3B - Pujols<br />1B - Hafner<br />LF - Manny<br />CF - Berkman<br />RF - Cabrera<br />2B - Utley</b></font><br /><br />DEFENSIVE TEAM<br />Wow. That's still a formidable offensive squad, with only two certifiable black holes in Everett and Molina.<br /><br /><font face="Courier New"><b>RF - Ichiro!<br />2B - Hudson<br />1B - D. Lee<br />3B - Rolen<br />LF - Guillen<br />CF - Cameron<br />SS - Everett<br />C - Y. Molina</b></font><br /><br />I think my first instinct was correct, that I'd rather have the best possible offense than the best possible defense. However, if there is a major conclusion I would draw from this exercise, it's that giving primacy to defense when building a team is a perfectly viable strategy, especially since they would be far cheaper. The Defensive Team we put together is actually a pretty decent offensive squad, while the Offensive Team only has one plus defender (Mauer) and two average-to-good defenders (Pujols, ARod) with the rest being potential disasters. The outfield, in particular, would absolutely need a defensive specialist for late-inning duty, perhaps a center fielder, with Berkman shifting to left. Though the Offensive Team wouldn't do their pitchers any favors (except maybe scoring seven runs per game), they're probably the better team.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1151945875011958152006-07-03T12:39:00.000-04:002006-07-04T03:39:25.870-04:00All-Star Quality JokeEvery year after the All-Star teams have been announced, fans, writers, and others have a chance to react, not just to the starters whom the fans have selected, but the reserves whom the manager has picked. Clearly, the system is flawed: but how to fix it?<br /><br /><b>1. Rein in the importance of fan voting.</b> Yes, I've heard the tired argument that the game is for the fans, and thus they should get to see whomever they want in the starting lineup, even if those players are overrated, washed up, or just happen to play for a team in New York or Boston. To that I say: screw the fans. I'm one, and I'd be glad to have my vote count less if it assured me that I was going to see the top 32 players in each league on their respective teams. Fans (as a whole) tend to be ill-informed and put way too much stock in name recognition, instead of (gasp) looking at what the players are actually doing this year. How else do you explain guys like Mark Loretta, Paul LoDuca, Ivan Rodriguez, and Vlad Guerrero in the starting lineup ahead of guys like Jose Lopez, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Vernon Wells? Fans will watch the game even if the roster isn't stacked with guys from Boston and New York, and it will truly reward the guys who are having great seasons.<br /><br /><b>2. Don't let players or managers near the selection process.</b> Players are perhaps the most ignorant people in baseball, except for managers. They will gravitate towards the big names for the most part, ignoring breakthrough players and young stars. Letting the manager from the previous World Series pick a few players often results in favoritism, and it has never been more rampant than this year in the AL, when White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen chose Paul Konerko, Bobby Jenks, and Mark Buerhle despite there being a plethora of better options, guys like Travis Hafner, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Francisco Liriano, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, JJ Putz, and others.<br /><br /><b>3. Don't let the media pick players either.</b> First, the majority of sportswriters and broadcast personalities are at least as clueless as fans, players, and managers. Second, they play favorites just like the rest of us.<br /><br /><b>4. Get rid of the rule requiring each team to have a representative.</b> Yes, the host team needs a player in the game, but who the hell cares if the Royals aren't represented? There's no one on that team playing at an All-Star level, so why foist guys like Mark Redman on us?<br /><br />So who should pick the teams? Why not the <i>Sportszilla</i> staff? I promise we'll be fairer than the current system, and we promise to fully explain our picks with better rationale than "he plays for my team," or "I know who he is."<br /><br />With that in mind, here are my rosters (stats given are OPS and Runs Created/Game for batters, FIP and Pitching Runs Created for starting pitchers, and FIP and K/G for relievers). <b>Bolded</b> players were named to the roster, while <b><i>bolded and italicized</b></i> players were named as starters<br /><br /><b>American League</b><br /><br /><b>Joe Mauer - C, Minnesota (.995, 10.0)</b><br />Travis Hafner - 1B, Cleveland (1.084, 11.7)<br /><b>Jose Lopez - 2B, Seattle (.790, 6.9)</b><br /><b><i>Derek Jeter - SS, New York (.890, 8.5)</b></i><br /><b><i>Alex Rodriguez - 3B, New York (.917, 8.0)</b></i><br /><b><i>Manny Ramirez - LF, Boston (1.058, 9.6)</b></i><br /><b>Vernon Wells - CF, Toronto (.987, 7.9)</b><br /><b>Jermaine Dye - RF, Chicago (1.003, 9.1)</b><br /><br />Jorge Posada - C, New York (.892, 7.5)<br /><b>Jim Thome - 1B/DH, Chicago (1.063, 10.8)</b><br />Jason Giambi - 1B/DH, New York (1.062, 10.4)<br /><b>Paul Konerko - 1B, Chicago (.952, 8.3)</b><br />Brian Roberts - 2B, Baltimore (.787, 7.2)<br />Carlos Guillen - SS, Detroit (.887, 7.7)<br />Joe Crede - 3B, Chicago (.871, 7.1)<br /><b><i>Ichiro Suzuki - OF, Seattle (.881, 8.3)</b></i><br />Carl Crawford - OF, Tampa Bay (.874, 8.7)<br /><b>Grady Sizemore - OF, Cleveland (.912, 7.4)</b><br /><b>Gary Matthews - OF, Texas (.915, 7.6)</b><br /><br /><b>Johan Santana - SP, Minnesota (2.90, 87)</b><br />Francisco Liriano - SP, Minnesota (2.39, 77)<br /><b>Roy Halladay - SP, Toronto (3.63, 61)</b><br />Jeremy Bonderman - SP, Detroit (2.68, 63)<br />Curt Schilling - SP, Boston (3.44, 66)<br />Mike Mussina - SP, New York (3.49, 66)<br />John Lackey - SP, Los Angeles (3.80, 59)<br />Danny Haren - SP, Oakland (4.13, 61)<br /><b>Scott Kazmir - SP, Tampa Bay (3.66, 54)</b><br /><b>Jonathan Papelbon - RP, Boston (1.92, 10.6)</b><br /><b>BJ Ryan - RP, Toronto (1.19, 13.9)</b><br />JJ Putz - RP, Seattle (1.29, 14.1)<br />Joe Nathan - RP, Minnesota (1.39, 13.8)<br /><br />Final Man choices:<br /><br /><b><i>David Ortiz - 1B/DH, Boston (.971, 7.4)</b></i><br />Raul Ibanez - OF, Seattle (.894, 7.6)<br /><b>Jose Contreas - SP, Chicago (3.76, 51)</b><br /><b>Barry Zito - SP, Oakland (4.34, 65)</b><br /><b>Bobby Jenks - RP, Chicago (2.21, 11.3)</b><br /><br />The biggest area of discrepancy on my AL roster is clearly on the pitching staff. Contreras has the gaudy W/L record, but his stats are a slight bit below the rest of the guys I picked. Ortiz is the biggest name left off, but I decided to take a backup at every position, and this season Ortiz is the fifth-best 1B/DH in the American League. The Royals are the only American League team without a representitive, and the roster breaks down like this:<br /><br />5 - New York<br />4 - Chicago, Minnesota<br />3 - Boston, Seattle, Toronto<br />2 - Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay<br />1 - Baltimore, Los Angeles, Oakland, Texas<br /><br /><b>National League:</b><br /><br /><b>Brian McCann - C, Atlanta (.923, 7.6)</b><br /><b><i>Albert Pujols - 1B, St. Louis (1.156, 13.3)</b></i><br /><b>Dan Uggla - 2B, Florida (.879, 7.6)</b><br /><b><i>Jose Reyes - SS, New York (.826, 7.1)</b></i><br /><b>Miguel Cabrera - 3B, Florida (1.013, 9.8)</b><br /><b>Matt Holliday - LF, Colorado (.992, 6.6)</b><br /><b><i>Carlos Beltran - CF, New York (1.039, 10.0)</b></i><br />Bobby Abreu - OF, Philadelphia (.917, 9.2)<br /><br />Michael Barrett - C, Chicago (.885, 6.2)<br />Nomar Garciaparra - 1B, Los Angeles(1.011, 9.9)<br /><b>Lance Berkman - 1B, Houston (1.009, 10.0)</b><br />Nick Johnson - 1B, Washington (.975, 8.8)<br /><b><i>Chase Utley - 2B, Philadelphia (.884, 7.1)</b></i><br />Bill Hall - SS, Milwaukee (.871, 6.0)<br /><b>Scott Rolen - 3B, St. Louis (.992, 8.3)</b><br /><b><i>David Wright - 3B, New York (.973, 8.9)</b></i><br /><b>Carlos Lee - RF, Milwaukee (.917, 7.5)</b><br /><b><i>Jason Bay - OF, Pittsburgh (.932, 6.7)</b></i><br /><br /><b>Brandon Webb - SP, Arizona (3.04, 78)</b><br /><b>Jason Schmidt - SP, San Francisco (3.40, 74)</b><br />Chris Capuano - SP, Milwaukee (3.11, 62)<br /><b>Bronson Arroyo - SP, Cincinnati (3.54, 73)</b><br /><b>Brad Penny - SP, Los Angeles (3.31, 61)</b><br />Roy Oswalt - SP, Houston (3.46, 56)<br /><b>Chris Carpenter - SP, St. Louis (3.57, 57)</b><br />Aaron Harang - SP, Cincinnati (3.20, 53)<br /><b>Pedro Martinez - SP, New York (3.67, 52)</b><br /><b>Brian Fuentes - RP, Colorado (2.76, 13.3)</b><br /><b>Trevor Hoffman - RP, San Diego (2.45, 7.7)</b><br /><b>Tom Gordon - RP, Philadelphia (2.74, 11.7)</b><br /><b>Derrick Turnbow - RP, Milwaukee (3.29, 11.6)</b><br /><br />Final Man choices:<br /><br /><b>Ryan Howard - 1B, Philadelphia (.958, 6.5)</b><br />Brad Hawpe - OF, Colorado (.962, 6.1)<br /><b>Freddy Sanchez - 3B, Pittsburgh (.928, 8.2)</b><br />Chris Young - SP, San Diego (4.38, 59)<br /><b>Carlos Zambrano - SP, Chicago (4.43, 65)</b><br /><br />My NL bullpen exactly matches the real roster, how about that? In general, my NL roster matches up a bit better with the real NL roster than in the AL, in part probably because Phil Garner was a bit more restrained in his selection then Ozzie Guillen was. The breakdown is as follows:<br /><br />4 - Milwaukee, New York<br />3 - Philadelphia, St. Louis<br />2 - Cincinnati, Colorado, Florida, Houston, Los Angeles<br />1 - Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington<br /><br />In all, only one team (the Royals) doesn't have a representitive. This roster has plenty of big names, but also rewards young players having breakout years and the other top performers in the game. Let me know what you think.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1151899593791130572006-07-03T00:01:00.000-04:002006-07-03T00:06:34.556-04:00More NBA Draft Philosophizin'Henry Abbott, of <a href="http://www.truehoop.com">TrueHoop</a>, wrote a piece a few days ago <a href="http://www.truehoop.com/2005-draft-22348-remember-ian-mahinmi.html">about NBA roster management</a> and how it relates to the draft. The column resonated with me because (to use English major lingo) it complicates <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/03/nba-draft-philosophy.html">my notions</a> of the best way to build a team. To sum up, Abbott points out that, in certain situations, teams are better off drafting a player that won't play for them right away, because it frees up a roster spot that can be used on a more useful player.<br /><br />Zach and I have sharply criticized teams that draft players in the hope that three or four years down the line they'll be better than players who are superior today. The idea is that you don't want your team wasting money and a roster spot on someone who management <i>knows</i> isn't a quality player, even if you're convinced in your heart of hearts that the player will contribute in future seasons. Using the classic example, Darko spent two and a half seasons languishing on the Pistons' bench, getting more and more frustrated at his lack of playing time, and possibly stagnating in his development because he was getting so little in-game experience. Detroit essentially wasted their draft pick on him.<br /><br />However, the story might have played out differently if Joe Dumars had elected to <a href="http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#42">let Darko play in Europe</a> instead of <a href="http://www.justbball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4623">buying out his contract</a> and bringing him to the States. In essence, Darko would have gone through a minor league apprenticeship and then joined the Pistons a couple years later, starting with a rookie contract, either when his deal with Hemofarm ran out, or when Detroit chose to buy him out. The Pistons, <a href="http://basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html">like the San Antonio Spurs every year</a>, were in a position where a young player probably wasn't going to crack the starting lineup, and the roster space and money could have gone to a player with a better chance of contributing that season.<br /><br />Thus, if there are no "organizational soldier" types available late in the first or at any time in the second round, why not swing for the fences and choose a <a href="http://nbadraft.net/profiles/kostaperovic.asp">Kosta Perovic</a> type of player? He's not good enough to play in the NBA yet, but he'll play overseas for a couple more years, at which point Golden State can decide whether or not to bring him to the Bay Area. If he still doesn't pass muster, they'll simply let him go, no harm no foul. The key, though, is that instead of keeping a project player on the bench, the team now has both roster and salary room to sign a useful free agent, even if it's a guy who only pushes his teammates in practice and will only see game time in case of widespread injury. Brian Scalabrine (at a reasonable price), or Kosta Perovic? Scalabrine, for all his sub-mediocrity, is the better choice to park his butt on the bench because he's better <i>right now</i>.<br /><br />The immediate issue that arises, though, is that the strategy only works with foreign players. The <a href="http://www.nba.com/dleague/nbdl/dleague_affiliation_050919.html">NBDL assignment rules are too restrictive</a> to allow this sort of roster maneuvering, so it doesn't make sense to treat American players the same way. Thus, someone like Shannon Brown, a late first round pick out of Michigan State, will either sink or swim in the NBA, whereas Sergio Rodriguez, also a first round pick, might jump into the NBA at a more ideal location in his developmental curve simply because he didn't play college ball in the States.<br /><br />Finally, some quick thoughts on a three teams' draft hauls...<br /><br />BOSTON - Leon Powe, Leon Powe, Leon Powe... Let me repeat what I wrote about him previously: "Cal's big man is prototypical PF size and averaged 20 and 10 in the Pac Ten last year. Yes, he has injury issues, having had to sit out what would have been his sophomore year recovering from knee surgery, but he played all of last season and produced." So, he's got the body, he's a superior athlete, the injury fears should be mostly alleviated after a healthy season, and he put up numbers in college. There was no good reason for him to drop as far as he did. With Denver locking up Nene to a big deal and still saddled with Kenyon Martin's contract, they weren't going to have a place for Powe, so Boston did well to land him for nearly nothing. And, for what it's worth, my dad says Powe was the best high school player he's ever seen in person (Oakland Tech). I'm telling you, he'll play, and I'm convinced he'll be the best player out of this year's second round and better than a bunch of the first rounders.<br /><br />ORLANDO - I'm interested to see if someone like J.J. Redick will ultimately be more valuable than someone like Rudy Gay, or someone like Rodney Carney. In other words, everyone knows Redick can do at least a couple things <i>very</i> well, and is either average or poor at most other aspects of his game. Is that a more desirable player than one who does a lot of things slightly better than average, but nothing exceptionally well? I don't know.<br /><br />PORTLAND - They got the two best players in the draft RIGHT NOW in Roy and Aldridge, plus two intriguing foreign players they can allow to play overseas and develop in Sergio Rodriguez and Joel Freeland. The two Americans are the most likely to pan out from this draft, Spanish Chocolate might be the best point guard under 20 in the world, and the 6-10 <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,10373-2250354,00.html">former grocery bagger</a> is supposedly athletic enough to project well as a defensive presence. If everything falls right--a huge "if"--Portland could be a dangerous squad quickly. Even if things don't go swimmingly, they still probably made out with the two best ballers to find a new team that night.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1151648541917145852006-06-30T02:44:00.000-04:002006-07-02T22:31:12.320-04:00Attacking Western United States With Three DiceWhen <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/05/sportszilla-draft-board.html">Zach</a> and <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/03/nba-draft-philosophy.html">I complain</a> about NBA teams screwing up draft picks by selecting based on upside/potential, we don't mean that teams should never take risks. It was risky to take Chris Kaman when both TJ Ford and Kirk Hinrich were still on the board and Jeff McInnis had been the starting PG the year before. For that matter, it was risky drafting Kobe Bryant, and it was risky drafting Dirk Nowitzky (and, in a certain light, it's understandable why both were traded). Some risks pay off handsomely, but that doesn't mean that all risks are created equal.<br /><br />I think we can all agree that this year's top tier was eight players deep, and all eight went in the first eight picks; there were no Darko-level missteps. After Rudy Gay went eighth, the Warriors made a respectable pick with Patrick O'Bryant. As a W's fan, I hate that they ended up with him, because even though I can't find anyone that was a clearly better choice in that spot, I'm completely unconvinced that he'll be all that great. In any event, I'm ecstatic they didn't go the route of the Sonics, picking in the tenth slot. Seattle chose Saer Sene, who, literally, learned how to shoot layups about a year ago. I mean, if all you're going to do is pick big people and try to teach them the game, why not try to lure <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kotooshu_Katsunori">this guy</a> to basketball? Or choose <a href="http://purduesports.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/ingraham_kyle00.html">this guy</a>? Would anybody else put significant money on the proposition that neither of the UConn big men selected in the first round, Hilton Armstrong or Josh Boone, will be more effective defenders in the NBA than Sene? Even in the freakin' Belgian league, the guy has <a href="http://www.rbcverviers-pepinster.be/saison05-06/joueurs/sene.php">little to no offensive game to speak of</a>. That's right. The Sonics chose a guy who's <i>averaging</i> 4 points in 12 minutes per game in Belgium. He doesn't get to the line, went 14-38 when he did, scores almost exclusively on tip-ins, has zero skill with his feet, apparently gets in foul trouble all the time, and while the silver lining is that, in his league, he appears to be a monster off the glass, I can't emphasize enough that the guy was playing 12 minutes per game for a team in BELGIUM. Not only that, but it appears he'll stay overseas to develop further, meaning the Sonics won't see him for another couple of seasons. Hell, if you're going to roll the dice on a freakish athlete who hasn't played against good competition, why not take a chance on someone who has, at least, <a href="http://www.d3hoops.com/pressreleases.php?release=586">destroyed what competition he's faced</a>? While selecting a DIII player with the tenth choice would be widely ridiculed, picking some guy whose ceiling, generously, seems to be Olowokandi-esque, but is more likely to end up sub-Lampe-rific, has been greeted with a collective shrug.<br /><br />Just as bad is when part-timers like Alexander Johnson or... wait for it... Renaldo Balkman get picked ahead of certifiable college stars like Leon Powe. Cal's big man is prototypical PF size and averaged 20 and 10 in the Pac Ten last year. Yes, he has injury issues, having had to sit out what would have been his sophomore year recovering from knee surgery, but he played all of last season and produced. Besides that, what in the world separates Daniel Gibson from Guillermo Diaz from <a href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/06/just-say-no.html">Mike Gansey</a>? I mean, Gibson went higher than Diaz, and Gansey was undrafted, despite Gibson's having the weakest surface numbers of the three. Somehow, I doubt I could ever get a satisfactory explanation.<br /><br />I don't expect every first round pick to result in an All Star. I don't expect a Gilbert Arenas from every second round pick. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect my team to ALWAYS choose guys in the first round who can, at least, fight for a spot in the rotation. And for the second round, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect my team to ALWAYS choose guys who can compete in practice and be legitimate NBA players, even if they're long shots to ever be rotation-worthy.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1151604569876909162006-06-29T14:09:00.000-04:002006-06-29T14:09:30.623-04:00It's Been a Long Time, I Shouldn't Have Left YouFolks, it's been a crazy six weeks since I graduated from college. As such, I've had limited time to devote to posting. I'd like to thank T-Bone and Ben (as well as the rest of the crew) for carrying things while I've been busy. I'm not quite out of the woods, but I can see the end, so hopefully I'll be back soon...with a vengance!<br /><br />Anyhow, there's so much to say about the world of sports, but here are a few things that are on my mind:<br /><br />-Before the season, Ben told me the Mariners would be a .500 team. I was far less hopeful: I figured they'd be slightly better than last year but not much. Well, as of today they're 40-39, 2 games out of first place in the AL West, and they have the best run differential in the division. They're on a serious roll at the moment, having won 18 of their last 25 games. The offense has been on fire in June, as Adrian Beltre is finally playing like the guy the Mariners thought they were getting, Kenji Johjima and Raul Ibanez are streaking as well, and Ichiro is, well, Ichiro!. Plus, the Mariners have perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the bullpen in the AL with Rafael Soriano (10.8 K/9) and JJ Putz (13.5! K/9, 1.38 FIP).<br /><br />The concerns are as follows: Richie Sexson is still underproducing, though he too has been better in June. Carl Everett is a gaping hole in the lineup, as is Jeremy Reed. The starting pitching is not very good: Felix has been good in June, but beyond that you've got the 43-year-old Moyer, the mediocre Washburn, a slightly-better Gil Meche, and the atrocious Joel Pineiro. Plus, there's the fact that the same group of guys played pretty poorly for the first two or so months of the season, which means it's certainly possible that they could regress down the road.<br /><br />But the fact is, both logic and stats combine to tell you that this team is a contender, at least for the AL West crown. More to the point, it means meaningful baseball in June and July for the first time in a few years. Plus, with so many young players stepping up (Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt, among others), it feels like this is merely the beginning for the Mariners.<br /><br />-God I love the NBA Draft, especially when it's as unpredicatable as yesterday's was. I thought Portland made out very well, considering they got the top two players on <a target="_blank" href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/05/sportszilla-draft-board.html">my draft board</a>. Yes, it cost them Sebastian Telfair to get Brandon Roy, but he's more ready to play at this point than Telfair. He and Aldridge will contribute right away, though it remains to be seen if the Blazers will be much better than last year.<br /><br />My Sonics, on the other hand, took Saer Sene, a seven-footer from Senegal with a 7-8 wingspan who just learned how to make layups a year ago. Considering we've taken raw seven-footers with our first pick in each of the previous two drafts, I'm a bit uncertain about this one. Yes, the top tier of players was gone, but I'd have been happy with Ronnie Brewer or Rodney Carney, either of whom could fill an immediate need. They did grab the intriguing Denham Brown in the second round, and he may have a chance to earn a bit of PT as Ray Allen's back-up. But I can't be the only Sonics fan who was disappointed that they didn't draft Villanova's Allen Ray...come on, the potential for amusement was so great.<br /><br />And then there's the Knicks: I was chanting "unknown Euro, unknown Euro" as David Stern stepped to the podium...and I was half right. I'm sure Knick fans can sum up their rage better than I can, but when at most 2% of the people in your fan base knew who this guy was, and he <b>played four years of college basketball in a major conference</b>, I think you maybe made a bit of a reach. Even better, no one on the ESPN broadcast even tried to defend the pick.<br /><br />While we're on the topic of Isiah Thomas, two thoughts: first, the Knicks will be better than 23-59 last year. As Ben and I have mentioned numerous times, the talent level on the team is too high for them to play that poorly, which means the blame rests with Larry Brown more than anyone else. Of course, that doesn't mean Isiah has done a good job. What's he's done is created a team that, with the <a target="_blank" href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/02/garden-dreams.html">right style of play</a> could be a poor man's Phoenix Suns, which means they can compete for the last playoff spot or two in the Eastern Conference. The problem is, there's no room for growth beyond that because even the Suns have yet to get over the hump and they have three players (Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire) who are better than anyone on the Knicks. Isiah has merely locked the team into a future of mediocrity, but at least he'll have them play the way they were meant to, based on the talent they assembled.<br /><br />Second, am I the only one who thinks that Michael Jordan is the next Isiah Thomas? First, look at his resume with the Wizards: traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse, mostly because Hamiliton wasn't endlessly deferential to MJ. Drafted Kwame Brown then undermined his confidence before he turned 20. Taking Adam Morrison was decent enough, but there's a reason that so few star players get involved in coaching and/or management. It's one thing to be able to control the game on the court, but as a GM you have to realize that just because you were a great player doesn't mean you can dominate the league off the court. Jordan was notorious in DC for lowballing players and coaches, and for letting his ego do the thinking. His competitiveness made him a great player, but you have to work <b>with</b> people in the front office to make things work. Something tells me that by the end of his dalliance with the Bobcats we're going to think differently about Jordan then we do now.<br /><br />-Finally, we're reaching a crossroads here at <i>Sportszilla</i> as we look to determine our future direction. If any of you regular readers out there have any suggestions about features you'd like to see, or questions you'd like answered, feel free to either leave a comment or drop an e-mail to <b>sportszilla</b> at <b>gmail</b> dot <b>com</b>.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1150304878126864522006-06-14T12:06:00.000-04:002006-06-14T14:34:09.230-04:00Baseball Without HeroesIt's been nearly a week since the <a target="_blank" href="http://deadspin.com/sports/baseball/so-weve-got-some-affidavit-names-179400.php">stunning story</a> first appeared on Deadspin: Albert Pujols' longtime trainer had been associated with finding performance-enhancing drugs for disgraced reliever Jason Grimsley (who also happens to anchor my middle relief in my fantasy-draft MVP 05 season, which was the only reason I knew who he was). It was a shocking blow to not just Cardinals fans, but to everyone who viewed Pujols as <a target="_blank" href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/albert-pujols-and-the-state-of-baseball/">the antidote</a> to Barry Bonds and the culture of cheating in baseball. So where does this leave us, as baseball (and perhaps sports) fans? I'd propose that we're embarking on a new era, and perhaps 2006 can become Year One AH (after heroes).<br /><br />For the last hundred or so years, baseball has often been described in terms of providing heroes, not just for children, but for all of us. From the mythic characters of Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Dimaggio, Mays, Aaron, and others, to the more singular heros: <a target="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Thomson">Bobby Thomson</a>, <a target="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Amoros">Sandy Amoros</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucky_Dent">Bucky Dent</a>, one of the largest contributions baseball has made to American culture has been providing us with heroes. While a few children may grow up dreaming of being a US Senator, a whole lot more dreamed of being a Washington Senator. How many of us have, at one point or another, stood in our back yards, or at a park, and pretended to be our favorite player?<br /><br />The evolution of baseball has presented new challenges for each group of youngsters who associate themselves with a particular player. Free agency meant that players would be less likely to stick with one team for their entire career, and the recreational drug scandals of the 1980s proved that no matter how superhuman their abilities on the fiel were, baseball players were subject to the same vices as the rest of us (and they had a lot more money to indulge them with). My generation will perhaps be the final one who could grow up with the belief that what our baseball heroes were doing on the field was honest. Hell, the biggest controversy about Ken Griffey Jr. was that he wore his hat backwards during batting practice.<br /><br />But now, everyone who puts on a jersey is suspect. We've entered a time in which we must acknowledge that not only is PED use rampant, but <a target="_blank" href="http://sportszilla.blogspot.com/2006/06/veil-of-conventional-wisdom.html">utterly unstoppable</a>. As much as I'd like to believe that none of my more favored Mariners are using PEDs, I have nothing to back that up but my (almost certainly misguided) faith.<br /><br />So what does this mean? I'd say we're embarking on a new era in baseball (and by extension, sports). It's certainly been harder and harder over the last 20 or 30 years to view athletes as heroes, but now I think it's not just difficult, it's unwise. It's time to put sports in a more reasonable context: just like actors will have all sorts of things done to their bodies in order to earn more money, even if the long-term health effects are at best unknown, so too will athletes. With the amount of money at stake, it would be foolish to assume otherwise. Perhaps if we're concerned that our children will take to using PEDs in furtherance of their dreams of professional stardom, we could either encourage them to use their talents in other, more worthwhile ways, or at least maybe keep an eye or two on what they're doing to themselves.<br /><br />If and when I have a child, I plan on explaining to them that while it's alright to cheer for the team, and the player, it's important to understand that being able to hit a ball doesn't mean you know how to live a life, and doesn't make you a hero. While such an attitude may be a dramatic break from the way baseball has been experienced in the past, it's in my view the only way to keep enjoying the sport in the year 1 AH.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9295797.post-1149899214696407172006-06-09T20:26:00.000-04:002006-06-09T20:26:55.036-04:00The Veil of Conventional WisdomConventional wisdom is a dangerous thing. At various times, it's allowed us to believe that killing off millions of Indians was our divinely ordained duty, that women were unworthy of enfranchisement, and that it's a good idea to bunt with a runner on first and no outs. There have been what I'd consider four distinct eras of conventional wisdom when it comes to steroids and baseball.<br /><br />The first era's conventional wisdom went something like this: "sure, steroid use may be rampant in the Olympics, and in football. But baseball isn't about muscle, it's about flexibility and speed and hand-eye coordination and whatnot. Thus, there's no incentive for players to take steroids." We've all seen how silly this conventional wisdom seems now. PEDs are about way more than just building muscle mass, obviously.<br /><br />The second era's conventional wisdom said: "ok, there are a few guys who take steroids, but they're the big muscly power hitters. Plus, taking steroids doesn't help you hit the ball, it just maybe lets you hit it a bit farther." Again, this wisdom ignored the facts about PEDs, namely that more than just muscle-bound power hitters could, and did, benefit from using them.<br /><br />It's at about this point that it became clear that PED use in baseball was far more rampant than just about anyone wanted to believe. Jose Canseco and Ken Caminiti both said that PEDs were used by at least half of big leaguers. Drug testing showed that a number of players, not just power hitters but speedsters and particularly pitchers were using as well. That spawned the next era, which said "now that baseball tests for steroids, we've finally regained some sense of integrity in the sport. Sure, from 1995-2004 was pretty tainted, but with stricter testing we can, and have, cleaned up the game.<br /><br />Jason Grimsley's recent bombshell seems to have done away with that brand of conventional wisdom. Clearly, players are still using forms of PEDs, and in fact all steroid testing did was make them change the type of PED they were taking.<br /><br />Unfortunately, one final bit of conventional wisdom remains, saying "sure, we may not have cleaned up baseball, but with stricter testing we can." This line of thought is echoed throughout our culture. To paraphrase <a target="_blank" href="http://www.ishmael.org">Daniel Quinn,</a>, whenever we as a culture want to eliminate a behavior, we pass a law against it. Since no unwanted behavior has ever been eliminated by making it illegal, we end up finding out that we haven't eliminated our unwanted behavior. We then pass stricter and stricter laws, with harsher and harsher punishments, and yet get nothing out of it. The problem with PEDs in baseball is that we don't have a way to get rid of them. Even if the players association agreed to blood testing, and even if we tested players every day, there'd be no way to be sure that players weren't using HGH and other undetectable PEDs.<br /><br />This puts on on the brink of a fifth age. We have to realize that as long as professional sports exist, PED use will be at least one step ahead of PED detection. There's too much money, power, and pride at stake for it to go any other way.<br /><br />I've got one last analogy for you. It's a well-known biological fact that the use of chemicals like antibiotics, pesticides, and the like have at best only a partial benefit for our society. At first, using these chemicals provides a drastic effect: people stop getting sick from certain diseases, or various unwanted pests are virtually annihilated. The problem is, prolonged use tends to do nothing other than kill off the majority of the species. Those who survive are the ones who are immune or at least resistant to the chemical, and they're the ones who reproduce. Thus, using antibiotics creates antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and using pesticides creates pesticide-resistant critters.<br /><br />In baseball, testing for steroids hasn't eliminated steroid use. For the most part, it's merely caught the stupid, the poorly-informed, and the arrogant. The more clever users have switched up what PEDs they're taking, or have found other ways around the testing. Now, they're the model that future athletes will follow, creating new generations of testing-resistant athletes.Zachhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06825086499064577652noreply@blogger.com0